484
FXUS61 KALY 060531
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 1:30 AM EDT
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SO FAR HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE WITH RAINFALL RATES TOPPING OUT AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER
HOUR SO FAR. HOWEVER, WE ARE MONITORING AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LONG ISLAND THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR AND THEN INTO THE BERKSHIRES
AFTER THAT. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
AROUND 0.75" PER HOUR BASED ON LATEST MRMS IMAGERY, SO WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE PONDING OF
WATER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE SHOWERS DO APPEAR TO
BE TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. IF WE SEE SIGNALS FOR PONDING OF
WATER, THEN A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE, AREAS
OF LIGHTER SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL
HOURS, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE
TYPICAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS, DEW POINTS, AND POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST, AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION (CVA) WILL HELP TO CONTINUE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION. MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 0.3" TO
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE
THE HIGHER QPF VALUES OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
NORTHWESTERN CT. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
NORTHWESTERN CT, AND WESTERN MA. RIVER GAUGES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. THE WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL
AND SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1/5 AND 2/5) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THE SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z NAM
3KM, AND THE HRRR SHOW DECENT CAPE VALUES UP TO 1200 J/KG IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KNOTS.
ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WITH MID 60S FOR HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE TUE EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL
EFFECTS, ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING. MOISTURE PLUME (GREATEST IVT)
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, SO THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO END. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL MUCH
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S FOR LOWS. THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY AND EASTERN PA BY LATE TUE NIGHT, THEN TRACK EAST
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND S. NEW ENGLAND ON WED. WITH A COLD
POOL ALOFT, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
PRODUCING SCATTERED T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. WITH SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE 65-70F
RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SHOULD END WED EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
WELL NORTH/EAST INTO MAINE, WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
ON THU, GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A POSITIVE TILT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATER THU
INTO THU NIGHT. AN FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER OR IN VICINITY OF OUR
REGION FRI INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION AND TRACK
OF THE ANTICIPATED CUT-OFF LOW, THIS PATTERN MAY AGAIN RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IF THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZES.
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE CUT-OFF LOW WON'T STAY AROUND FOR LONG,
AS IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT. SO AT LEAST
SOME OF THE UPCOMING MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND MAY END UP WITH DECENT
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO GET BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO BUILD
IN SUN NIGHT INTO MON, WITH CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGE UP TO 06Z/TUE WITH SOME
POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/TUE. RAIN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE AFTER 12Z/TUE WITH CIGS/VSBYS
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z/TUE, BUT WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH AT
THIS TIME AND REFER TO FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
WIND WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BRINGS 2000 FT WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 KT AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS, SOME
FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
EXPECTED. EVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER THE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE URBAN AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TUESDAY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.5 INCHES (UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT), COMBINED WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND HAS INCREASED THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. LATEST ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
INDICATE MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (~30-50%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER,
ESOPUS CREEK, WEST CANADA CREEK, HOOSIC RIVER, SCHOHARIE CREEK,
THE WALLOOMSAC.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...MAIN/JPV/WEBB
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RATHBUN
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WEBB
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