512
FXUS61 KALY 070229
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE
COMES IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY MAINLY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS IN EASTERN NEW
YORK.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 1025 PM EDT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ONE
REMAINING BAND OF SHOWERS, FALLING MODERATE AT TIMES, IS ARCING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND IS ENTERING AREAS WHERE FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW.
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY (I.E. MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS), PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY TAPER
OFF OR HAS ALREADY ENDED. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 AM BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL HAS ENDED IN THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS,
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART
THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS FORCING CONTINUES TO
DECREASE, RATES WILL ALSO DECREASE SUCH THAT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S THE
UPPER 60S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW 70S IN THE LOWER MID-
HUDSON VALLEY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FINALLY TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S PRIMARILY WITH LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS.
UNFORTUNATELY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT BECOMES STALLED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH FROM SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC.
FORCING FROM THE FRONT, NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, AND
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, SHOWERS DON'T LOOK
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVY AT ONSET, BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE RE-
WETTING ALREADY VERY MOIST SOILS FROM DAYS PREVIOUS. BUT, WITH
THE DEEPENING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT,
SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RATES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS TO LOW
70S IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL THEN BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN THE
LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-70%) FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION:
LIKE IN THE PREVIOUS TWO PERIODS, RAIN WILL BE NO STRANGER TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND RATHER WET.
WITH A POTENT, NEUTRALLY-TILTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
DIG SOUTH FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK, THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY, AND THE WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOSE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC AIR INTO THE REGION, SUPPLYING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN RAIN. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL RATES TO START, THE DEEPENING OF THE
SHORTWAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW WILL TRIGGER A SURFACE RESPONSE WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WHICH COULD CAUSE STEADIER TO
MORE MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID/UPPER 40S.
RAIN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH AS THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS
SURFACE COUNTERPART TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, IT
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. BY SATURDAY
EVENING, QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.15" TO 0.9" WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LYING GENERALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
THE LEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF I-90. NOW, IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WHILE GENERAL
CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS SOLUTION, THERE ARE STILL SOME MEMBERS OF
GUIDANCE POINTING TO THE RESPONSIBLE SYSTEM KICKING OUT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SUCH THAT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ACCUMULATED. WITH ALL
OF THE RAIN LEADING UP TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
BETTER NEWS COMES FOR MOTHER'S DAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, PROVIDING A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE TO WET WEATHER. AND, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW
80S BY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BE MORE PLEASANT.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/THU...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
00-04Z/WED WHERE TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR DURING THIS TIME. WHILE
BRIEF IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER, CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. DRIER
WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WITH A LINGERING BREEZE, FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP, THOUGH SOME
PATCHY LOW MVFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER, ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS, SOME FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED. EVEN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS
OVER THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE URBAN AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES (WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT), COMBINED WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND HAS INCREASED THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA.
THE HOUSATONIC AT STEVENSON DAM AND THE STILL RIVER AT
BROOKFIELD HAVE HIT MINOR FLOOD STAGE DUE TO THE RAIN OVERNIGHT.
LATEST ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (~10-30%) FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POINTS TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER,
ESOPUS CREEK, WEST CANADA CREEK, HOOSIC RIVER, SCHOHARIE CREEK,
AND ON THE WALLOOMSAC.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038>040-047-048-
051-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT/RATHBUN
NEAR TERM...GANT/RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...RATHBUN/SPECIALE
HYDROLOGY...GANT/MAIN
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