114
FXUS61 KALY 071437
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1037 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS. AFTER A BRIEF TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
FINALLY DRY OUT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A TREND TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED
TODAY, BUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 1037 AM EDT
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS
BEEN IMPACTING OUR CWA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SETTLED
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. ALOFT, THE CLOSED LOW IS JUST
OVERHEAD WITH MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINING SCATTERED, LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER,
AS THE SYSTEM KEEPS TRACKING NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TRACK INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
FARTHER SOUTH, THOUGH BRINGING LITTLE ADDITIVE RAINFALL. SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
PREVIOUS
OUR UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY AROUND 12Z. AN ASSOCIATED 1010 MB SFC
LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ON
ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
TODAY, THE UPPER LOW STARTS OVERHEAD, THEN SLIDES EASTWARDS INTO
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER TODAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THERE WILL BE UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
SBCAPE BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALSO WELL TO OUR EAST NOW, SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE
SHOWERS TODAY. WE WENT WITH A BLEND OF NBM/MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS
TODAY, WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
- IF HIGHER-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE REALIZED IN
THESE AREAS, THEN ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS OUR UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY GET TO AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY 12Z,
FINALLY SETTLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, MAINLY IN THE 40S,
WITH SOME LOW 50S STILL POSSIBLE FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM AROUND
I-90 SOUTH. TOMORROW, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE
OF A NEUTRAL TILT, AND ALSO STARTS TO INTERACT/PHASE WITH A
SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE OZARKS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS PHASE, MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO, OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING FROM THE
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DIGGING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED BEFORE CLOSING OFF ALOFT
AND BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF OVER WESTERN PA / SOUTHWESTERN NY, THEN SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARDS OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARDS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF AND
TRACKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST, NEAR CAPE COD, FRIDAY NIGHT
AS IT DEEPENS BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT OF AN UPPER JET ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW.
A STRENGTHENING S/SE LLJ ALLOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE THE HIGHEST
PWATS SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE
FORM OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THE OVERLAP OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH INCREASING INTENSITY AS WELL. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE RAIN COULD BE
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >1" OF RAIN ARE AROUND
50% FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WITH
15-20% PROBABILITIES FOR >2" OF RAIN HERE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE AND FORCING, THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE.
FOR NOW, WILL MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF
RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE CATSKILLS WHERE THERE WILL
BE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL S/SE FLOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS HIGHEST
FROM THE CATSKILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXTEND. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES MATCH ONE OF THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WARM-SEASON
CLOSED LOW CSTAR RESEARCH, AND IF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE REALIZED, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS
TO DEAL WITH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH FEATURE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO 50S (VALLEYS) ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPS TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL MOTHERS DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION:
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS GRAY AND COOL WITH THE COASTAL
LOW MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CLOSED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS SHOULD RUN A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID AND
UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS. DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
SOME 30S IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
MOTHERS DAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND PLEASANT WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE. MAX TEMP WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SFC HIGH
MOVING OVER THE REGION AND THEN OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE RETREATING SFC ANTICYCLONE OFFSHORE WILL
ALLOW FOR A FURTHER UPTICK IN TEMPS WITH THE FAIR AND PLEASANT
WEATHER CONTINUING ON MON. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
MAY REACH 80F MON AND TUE. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HANGS ON OVER THE
NORTHEAST FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CLOSE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 1200 UTC/THU... A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG IMPACTING KPOU.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AT KPOU BY 13Z-15Z/WED. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS INCREASES FOR KALB-KPSF NORTH AND EAST IN THE
14Z-18Z/WED TIME FRAME AND WE USED PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL 18Z/WED-00Z/THU FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL FOR THE DURATION
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR LEVELS AT
KPOU 00Z/THU TO 06Z/THU.
THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT MT. MARION ON THE ESOPUS CREEK, AND
REMAINS POSSIBLE BELOW NEAR STEVENSON DAM ON THE LOWER
HOUSATONIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE MANY OTHER
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANKFULL, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH THE
SHOWERS TODAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE
GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP TO AROUND A
50% CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS,
ESPECIALLY THE ESOPUS, HOOSIC, HOUSATONIC, SCHOHARIE, WALLOOMSAC,
AND HUDSON RIVER AT WATERFORD. IF CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THEN THESE PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY GO UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...GANT/MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...MAIN
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