358
FXUS61 KALY 071743
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MINOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS COMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER BRINGS WIDESPREAD, PROLONGED RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH NEEDED
RESPITE FROM WET WEATHER COMES IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED
TODAY, BUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 145 PM EDT
ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE SURFACE LOW HAS
PROGRESSED NORTH AND EAST SUCH THAT ITS CURRENT, ELONGATED
POSITION EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHEASTERN
QUEBEC. MOST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ENDED, EXITING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW, BUT ADDITIONAL ONES LIE JUST
UPSTREAM, CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO AND SURFING INTO NORTHWESTERN
NEW YORK. THESE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY A DRYING TREND
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO EXIT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
PREVIOUS
OUR UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY AROUND 12Z. AN ASSOCIATED 1010 MB SFC
LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ON
ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
TODAY, THE UPPER LOW STARTS OVERHEAD, THEN SLIDES EASTWARDS INTO
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER TODAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THERE WILL BE UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
SBCAPE BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALSO WELL TO OUR EAST NOW, SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE
SHOWERS TODAY. WE WENT WITH A BLEND OF NBM/MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS
TODAY, WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
- IF HIGHER-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE REALIZED IN
THESE AREAS, THEN ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS OUR UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY GET TO AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY 12Z,
FINALLY SETTLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, MAINLY IN THE 40S,
WITH SOME LOW 50S STILL POSSIBLE FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM AROUND
I-90 SOUTH. TOMORROW, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE
OF A NEUTRAL TILT, AND ALSO STARTS TO INTERACT/PHASE WITH A
SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE OZARKS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS PHASE, MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO, OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING FROM THE
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DIGGING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED BEFORE CLOSING OFF ALOFT
AND BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF OVER WESTERN PA / SOUTHWESTERN NY, THEN SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARDS OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARDS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF AND
TRACKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST, NEAR CAPE COD, FRIDAY NIGHT
AS IT DEEPENS BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT OF AN UPPER JET ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW.
A STRENGTHENING S/SE LLJ ALLOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE THE HIGHEST
PWATS SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE
FORM OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THE OVERLAP OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH INCREASING INTENSITY AS WELL. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE RAIN COULD BE
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >1" OF RAIN ARE AROUND
50% FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WITH
15-20% PROBABILITIES FOR >2" OF RAIN HERE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE AND FORCING, THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE.
FOR NOW, WILL MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF
RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE CATSKILLS WHERE THERE WILL
BE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL S/SE FLOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS HIGHEST
FROM THE CATSKILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXTEND. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES MATCH ONE OF THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WARM-SEASON
CLOSED LOW CSTAR RESEARCH, AND IF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE REALIZED, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS
TO DEAL WITH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH FEATURE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO 50S (VALLEYS) ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A REGIONWIDE, MUCH-NEEDED RESPITE FROM RAIN BEGINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM FULLY DEPARTS OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING EASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH RIDGING ALOFT. BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER CAN
THEREFORE BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOTHER'S DAY HOLIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ~ +10C TO +12C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, TRANSLATING TO WIDESPREAD 70S WITH POCKETS
OF UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAVORABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT LOOKS
TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PORTRAYAL OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MONDAY COURTESY OF
850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING THEIR +10C TO +12C VALUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IT WILL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
TAF SITES. BKN-OVC CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3500-5000 FT,
SO IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, BRIEF AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY.
FOR TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL LOWER DOWN TO MVFR RANGE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO 2-3 KFT FOR ALL SITES. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KALB/KPOU,
BUT THE OTHER SITES WILL SEE THE LOWERING FROM AROUND 06Z-09Z. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 1500-3000 FT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT MT. MARION ON THE ESOPUS CREEK, AND
REMAINS POSSIBLE BELOW NEAR STEVENSON DAM ON THE LOWER
HOUSATONIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE MANY OTHER
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANKFULL, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH THE
SHOWERS TODAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE
GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP TO AROUND A
50% CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS,
ESPECIALLY THE ESOPUS, HOOSIC, HOUSATONIC, SCHOHARIE, WALLOOMSAC,
AND HUDSON RIVER AT WATERFORD. IF CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THEN THESE PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY GO UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...MAIN
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