570
FXUS61 KALY 072019
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MINOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS COMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER BRINGS WIDESPREAD, PROLONGED RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH NEEDED
RESPITE FROM WET WEATHER COMES IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
ADDITIONAL MINOR, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING AS THE UPPER LOW, NOW ALMOST DEAMPLIFIED
TO THE POINT OF BEING AN OPEN WAVE, AND ITS SURFACE COUNTERPART
CONTINUE TO DEPART FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF THESE
LASTING SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN
GREENS WHERE ADJACENCY AND ACCESS TO LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN SUSTAINING SHOWERS THAT FAR
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTH AND EAST RETREAT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION, CONTRIBUTING, THOUGH
WEAK, FORCING FOR ASCENT TO ALSO HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS AT LEAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
UPON THE CONCLUSION OF SHOWERS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
REGIONWIDE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD POSE THE THREAT FOR RIVER RISES, PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO ANTECEDENT, VERY WET SOILS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30 TO 60%) IN AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES SPANNING AREAS ALONG,
SOUTH, AND EAST OF I-90.
DISCUSSION:
THURSDAY BEGINS DRY, THOUGH CLOUDY, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIED WITH UPPER 40S/MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S
ELSEWHERE.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE ON
THURSDAY, ALOFT, A POTENT, POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK. MEANWHILE, NEAR THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, A WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AND NOSE NORTHWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS, HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ATTRIBUTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL ALIGN WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO INDUCE LIFT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCING A STRATIFORM AREA OF RAIN THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE ONCE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE DEEPENED
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW, CONTINUING TO DEEPEN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHILE SLOWLY TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT. IN RESPONSE,
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH THE DEEPENING OF
ITS PARENT LOW, CLOSELY HUGGING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE, BECOMING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
LOCALLY HEAVY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED AND BEGINS
TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE COASTAL
LOW WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN ITS LEADING EDGE, SHIFTING THE
BEST FORCING OFF TO OUR EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT RATES WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN. TIMING ON THE ACTUAL
CEASING OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF SUCH IN THE GUIDANCE AS IT
PERTAINS TO THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID, THESE WILL LIKELY NOT LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 2 INCHES
IS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UPWARDS
OF 2.5 INCHES IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RESULTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE REGION HAVING RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN JUST DAYS PRIOR, THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES, PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A REGIONWIDE, MUCH-NEEDED RESPITE FROM RAIN BEGINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM FULLY DEPARTS OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING EASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH RIDGING ALOFT. BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER CAN
THEREFORE BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOTHER'S DAY HOLIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ~ +10C TO +12C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, TRANSLATING TO WIDESPREAD 70S WITH POCKETS
OF UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAVORABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT LOOKS
TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PORTRAYAL OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MONDAY COURTESY OF
850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING THEIR +10C TO +12C VALUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IT WILL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
TAF SITES. BKN-OVC CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3500-5000 FT,
SO IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, BRIEF AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY.
FOR TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL LOWER DOWN TO MVFR RANGE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO 2-3 KFT FOR ALL SITES. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KALB/KPOU,
BUT THE OTHER SITES WILL SEE THE LOWERING FROM AROUND 06Z-09Z. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 1500-3000 FT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT MT. MARION ON THE ESOPUS CREEK, BUT
ALL OTHER MAIN-STEM RIVERS HAVE RECEDED UNDER FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE
GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP TO AROUND A
50% CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS,
ESPECIALLY THE ESOPUS, HOOSIC, HOUSATONIC, SCHOHARIE, WALLOOMSAC,
AND HUDSON RIVER AT WATERFORD. IF CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THEN THESE PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY GO UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GANT/MAIN
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