434
FXUS61 KALY 080505
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WIDESPREAD,
PROLONGED RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH NEEDED
RESPITE FROM WET WEATHER COMES IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE...AS OF 105 AM EDT
AN MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER QUEBEC WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT IS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUD COVER IS VARIABLE. WE HAVE
TRENDED TO CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CLOSER TO I-84. A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS
NORTH OF ROUTE 28 IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND WE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DIP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIMITED. WE STARTED TO
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY THE LATE
MORNING. TEMPS HAVE SETTLED IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE SOUTHERN DACKS. FOR EXAMPLE, OLD FORGE IN THE NYS MESONET
IS 47F THIS HOUR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN POCKETS OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD POSE THE THREAT FOR RIVER RISES, PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO ANTECEDENT, VERY WET SOILS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30 TO 60%) IN AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES SPANNING AREAS ALONG,
SOUTH, AND EAST OF I-90.
DISCUSSION:
THURSDAY BEGINS DRY, THOUGH CLOUDY, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIED WITH UPPER 40S/MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S
ELSEWHERE.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE ON
THURSDAY, ALOFT, A POTENT, POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK. MEANWHILE, NEAR THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, A WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AND NOSE NORTHWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS, HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ATTRIBUTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL ALIGN WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO INDUCE LIFT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCING A STRATIFORM AREA OF RAIN THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE ONCE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE DEEPENED
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW, CONTINUING TO DEEPEN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHILE SLOWLY TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT. IN RESPONSE,
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH THE DEEPENING OF
ITS PARENT LOW, CLOSELY HUGGING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE, BECOMING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
LOCALLY HEAVY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED AND BEGINS
TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE COASTAL
LOW WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN ITS LEADING EDGE, SHIFTING THE
BEST FORCING OFF TO OUR EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT RATES WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN. TIMING ON THE ACTUAL
CEASING OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF SUCH IN THE GUIDANCE AS IT
PERTAINS TO THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID, THESE WILL LIKELY NOT LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 2 INCHES
IS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UPWARDS
OF 2.5 INCHES IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RESULTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE REGION HAVING RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN JUST DAYS PRIOR, THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES, PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A REGIONWIDE, MUCH-NEEDED RESPITE FROM RAIN BEGINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM FULLY DEPARTS OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING EASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH RIDGING ALOFT. BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER CAN
THEREFORE BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOTHER'S DAY HOLIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ~ +10C TO +12C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, TRANSLATING TO WIDESPREAD 70S WITH POCKETS
OF UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAVORABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT LOOKS
TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PORTRAYAL OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MONDAY COURTESY OF
850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING THEIR +10C TO +12C VALUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...BKN-OVC CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. INITIALLY, CIGS ARE AT VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR AT KPOU.
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY REACH IFR LEVELS AT KPSF OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAINLY
MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ON THURSDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THURSDAY, CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT MT. MARION ON THE ESOPUS CREEK, BUT
ALL OTHER MAIN-STEM RIVERS HAVE RECEDED UNDER FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE
GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP TO AROUND A
50% CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS,
ESPECIALLY THE ESOPUS, HOOSIC, HOUSATONIC, SCHOHARIE, WALLOOMSAC,
AND HUDSON RIVER AT WATERFORD. IF CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THEN THESE PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY GO UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT/RATHBUN/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GANT/RATHBUN/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...GANT/MAIN
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