615
FXUS61 KALY 081746
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL SPREAD A STEADY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS,
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY. MILDER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOTHER'S DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 146 PM EDT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
SITUATED OVER QUEBEC WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS NY
AND NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND IS NOW STALLING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, AS THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S FOR THE CAPITAL REGION, WHILE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
SOME INSTABILITY, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE IN PLACE. RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. CAMS SUGGEST SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
STRONG STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MEAGER CAPE AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES, SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR BRIEF T-STORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN PLACE HERE BY
THIS EVENING. WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD
IN THE 70S, IT WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALL OF EASTERN
NY EXCLUDING HERKIMER, HAMILTON, NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE INCREASED POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MINOR FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS AND
BROOKS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE 48-HR TIME FRAME ENDING 8 AM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION:
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE A SPRING RAIN STORM WILL IMPACT THE
ENTIRE ALY FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
POSITIVELY-TILTED H500 TROUGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA,
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE OLD COLD FRONT
WITH EXTEND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH OR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL TONIGHT. SOME EMBEDDED
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER EARLY ON SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
PWATS RISING ABOVE NORMAL. THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION DIPS
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN OH AND PA TOWARDS 12Z/FRI. AN ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL JET TAPS SOME GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR PERIODS
OF RAIN...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE AND
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. THE SFC WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
IT, FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, AND STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
FGEN. THE NBM...AS WELL AS THE GFS, NAM, EC, AND CMC ARE ALL ON
BOARD FOR A 24-30 HR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH 1-3" OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST. THE 3-KM HRRR
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING A LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST AND IMPACTING WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND MORE AND EASTERN NY LESS. THE FLOOD WATCH IS JUSTIFIED
BY THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND QPF AND WE DID NOT PLACE
IT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA DUE TO
DROP OFF IN QPF. SOME MORE ZONES OR COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED IN
LATER. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION SEGMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
IT SEEMS LIKE SOUTHERN VT, THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE IN THE BEST QG LIFT, FGEN AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR 1.5-3" OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND WESTER NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
PAST CSTAR WARM SEASON CLOSED LOW RESEARCH HAS SHOWN PATTERNS
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TO
NEUTRAL CUT-OFF LOWS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SURPRESSED BY THE RAIN COOLED AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S. IT WILL BE CHILLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE
MTNS FRI NIGHT WITH 40S IN THE VALLEY, THE DRY SLOT TO THE
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SYSTEM AND THE H500
CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN THEY WILL TAPER OFF
LAST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NEW BRUNSWICK. HIGHS WILL CREEP CLOSER TO MID 50S TO AROUND
60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE VALLEYS.
A DRYING TREND OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A 1030 HPA OR SO SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPS TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL MOTHERS DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE
A PLEASANT AND DRY MOTHER'S DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S. SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM FURTHER BEGINNING MONDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING 925-850 HPA TEMPS TO AROUND +10C TO
+15C, TRANSLATING TO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80
(AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY) THROUGH MID WEEK.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S, BUT SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUR WELCOMED RELIEF FROM THE RAIN LOOKS TO END TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED ON THE SYSTEM STRENGTH, EVOLUTION AND PRECIP
PLACEMENT SO HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. POU/PSF ARE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SO
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 5-7 KFT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A T-STORM MAY IMPACT THESE SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT THIS WOULD BE BRIEF. WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THESE SITES FOR A QUICK SHOWER THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL STAY VFR WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
FURTHER NORTH, KALB/KGFL IS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2-3 KFT.
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT KALB AND THIS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT IT WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
MVFR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL BE STEADILY LOWERING AT ALL SITES TO
MVFR LEVELS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY VISIBILITY AS WELL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING AS
RAINFALL BECOMES HEAVIER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE AND
NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION FROM 5 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GROUND IS
RATHER SATURATED AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS WEEK. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR REGION
INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER BURSTS. THE LATEST RFC
FORECASTS SHOWS POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER,
HOUSATONIC RIVER AND ESOPUS CREEK. IN ADDITION, PONDING OF
WATER IS EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE, URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
FROM OUR NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBPAGE AT
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/ALY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
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