976
FXUS61 KALY 081945
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL SPREAD A STEADY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS,
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY. MILDER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOTHER'S DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 345 PM EDT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A NORTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, SOUTHERN AREAS (SUCH AS NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) ARE STILL IN THE MID 70S. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9
PM.
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
SOME INSTABILITY, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500-1000
J/KG OF MUCAPE IN PLACE. WHILE STRONG STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES,
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR BRIEF T-STORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN
PLACE HERE BY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THERE SHOULD BE A LULL AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 9 PM.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE
FILLING IN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS APPROACHING.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK (ABOUT 5-8 AM). MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND
CREEKS, AS WELL AS FLOODING OR URBAN, LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE TO EXCEED 2 INCHES FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION, CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWING MOVING OFF THE JERSEY SHORE ON
FRIDAY AND LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY THANKS TO A CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR PWAT VALUES TO EXCEED ONE INCH OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE SEEING LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL BEGINNING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY. WHILE IT WILL BE RAINFALL CONTINUOUSLY, PRECIP RATES
WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THERE MAY
BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER (UP TO A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR). SOME AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST MAY SEE SOME HIGHER RATES AS WELL, BUT PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE STRATIFORM AND NOT CONVECTIVE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN INTO THE 50S ALL DAY ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY RAINFALL.
STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEPART. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH RAINFALL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS.
BY THE END OF THE EVENT, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. NBM PROBS SHOWS A 50% TO 70% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 1", WITH ABOUT A 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING TWO
INCHES FOR THE CAPITAL REGION, CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR A LOT OF RUNOFF DUE TO THE
RECENT WET CONDITIONS. MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS, AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS LOOKS TO
OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM, SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OF SKIES IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
60S ON SATURDAY IF SOME BREAKS OCCUR, WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE
40S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION:
A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, MOTHER'S DAY,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S,
RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S TO MID-40S. FLOW THEN SHIFTS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLIER IN THE WEEK SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOW FAR NORTH IT TRACKS
AND HOW QUICKLY WILL DETERMINE WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
RIGHT NOW, WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS (30-50%) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVERHEAD WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE
UPPER LOW BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. POU/PSF ARE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SO
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 5-7 KFT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A T-STORM MAY IMPACT THESE SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT THIS WOULD BE BRIEF. WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THESE SITES FOR A QUICK SHOWER THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL STAY VFR WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
FURTHER NORTH, KALB/KGFL IS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2-3 KFT.
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT KALB AND THIS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT IT WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
MVFR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL BE STEADILY LOWERING AT ALL SITES TO
MVFR LEVELS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY VISIBILITY AS WELL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING AS
RAINFALL BECOMES HEAVIER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE AND
NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION FROM 5 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GROUND IS
RATHER SATURATED AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS WEEK. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR REGION
INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER BURSTS. THE LATEST RFC
FORECASTS SHOWS POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER,
HOUSATONIC RIVER AND ESOPUS CREEK. IN ADDITION, PONDING OF
WATER IS EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE, URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
FROM OUR NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBPAGE AT
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/ALY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
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