144
FXUS61 KALY 090507
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL SPREAD A STEADY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE AREA
FOR TODAY. THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS, URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY. MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOTHER'S DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE...AS OF 100 AM EDT
THE KENX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN NY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION,
TACONICS, AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHOWERS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A RAIN SHIELD BY 6 AM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
WITH THE LEAD SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN NJ. SOME
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS. IT WILL BE A DANK AND COOL RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK. FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD
AND WE WILL SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD IN A FEW ZONES OVER LAKE
GEORGE REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND
CREEKS, AS WELL AS FLOODING OR URBAN, LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE TO EXCEED 2 INCHES FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION, CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWING MOVING OFF THE JERSEY SHORE ON
FRIDAY AND LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY THANKS TO A CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR PWAT VALUES TO EXCEED ONE INCH OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE SEEING LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL BEGINNING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY. WHILE IT WILL BE RAINFALL CONTINUOUSLY, PRECIP RATES
WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THERE MAY
BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER (UP TO A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR). SOME AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST MAY SEE SOME HIGHER RATES AS WELL, BUT PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE STRATIFORM AND NOT CONVECTIVE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN INTO THE 50S ALL DAY ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY RAINFALL.
STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEPART. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH RAINFALL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS.
BY THE END OF THE EVENT, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. NBM PROBS SHOWS A 50% TO 70% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 1", WITH ABOUT A 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING TWO
INCHES FOR THE CAPITAL REGION, CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR A LOT OF RUNOFF DUE TO THE
RECENT WET CONDITIONS. MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS, AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS LOOKS TO
OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM, SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OF SKIES IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
60S ON SATURDAY IF SOME BREAKS OCCUR, WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE
40S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION:
A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, MOTHER'S DAY,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S,
RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S TO MID-40S. FLOW THEN SHIFTS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLIER IN THE WEEK SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOW FAR NORTH IT TRACKS
AND HOW QUICKLY WILL DETERMINE WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
RIGHT NOW, WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS (30-50%) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVERHEAD WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE
UPPER LOW BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AND BECOMES A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN BY MID MORNING, WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TO IFR, WITH
LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND
5-10 KTS FOR THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE AND
NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION FROM 5 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GROUND IS
RATHER SATURATED AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS WEEK. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR REGION
INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER BURSTS. THE LATEST RFC
FORECASTS SHOWS POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER,
HOUSATONIC RIVER AND ESOPUS CREEK. IN ADDITION, PONDING OF
WATER IS EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE, URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
FROM OUR NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBPAGE AT
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/ALY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...SPECK
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
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