346
FXUS61 KALY 241031
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO
TOMORROW WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...AS OF 631 AM EDT
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH THIS UPDATE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH LATEST OBS. ALL ELSE REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
[413 AM EDT]
COOL, CLOUDY, AND RAINY...IN OTHER WORDS, TODAY'S CONDITIONS
ARE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THOSE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD, UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, NOW POSITIONED OVERTOP OF NEW ENGLAND, KEEPS US
LOCKED UNDER MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW. THAT SAID, RAIN WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE SURFACE COMPONENT OF
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA, DISPLACING THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WELL
UPSTREAM. STILL, UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULSING ABOUT THE
REAR FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERSECT WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT
FOR VERTICAL ASCENT ARE CREATED AND SHOWERS THAT SLOW DOWN THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SHOWER CREATION AND MAINTENANCE.
HIGHS TODAY, THOUGH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WILL
REMAIN COOL BY LATE-MAY STANDARDS WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN LARGE
VALLEY AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BEING THAT SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, WHAT
WITH THE COLD POOL OF THE LOW SWEEPING THROUGH OVERHEAD, THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE THE GRADUAL WANE OF SHOWERS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S AT
ELEVATIONS EXCEEDING 1000 FT.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS WHERE
IMPROVEMENTS TO CONDITIONS CAN FINALLY BE EXPECTED AS THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES BECOMES MORE NOTICEABLE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY DWINDLE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SLOWLY-DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH JUST A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
GREATER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT ELSEWHERE ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AND EVEN THESE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH AGAIN WANING
SHOWERS AT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES LARGELY IN
THE 40S.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY HAVE IN ALMOST A WEEK. VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. AND WHILE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY FOR MOST, SOME VERY LIGHT, HIGH-ELEVATION SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND
CATSKILLS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST ONE LAST WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PAIRING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN
80%) FOR DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS SHORT-
LIVED AS CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY COOL, CLOUDY, AND DAYS WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT FOR A
DRY PERIOD TO FINALLY ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ALSO TREND WARMER AND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLY LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY QUICKLY THIS CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD AS
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE WEAK SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THERE IS A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR THE TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, POPS WERE LIMITED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE WEDNESDAY P.M INTO THURSDAY WHEN WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE FURTHER INCREASES FOR RAIN AND EVEN POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WHEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER KINEMATICS ALOFT,
THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. FOR THESE REASONS, WIDESPREAD CHANCE AND
EVEN LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY P.M THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT GFL, ALB, AND POU
TONIGHT TREND TO MVFR TOWARDS 09 - 12 UTC AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. WHILE OBSERVATIONS ARE MISSING FROM PSF, NEARBY DDH
INDICATES IFR CIGS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW. SIMILAR UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING AT PSF. CIGS THEN VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR THIS MORNING AT GFL, POU AND ALB AS ADDITIONAL PERIODIC RAIN
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS BUT RAIN REMAINS LIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT VFR VIS. UPSLOPE FLOW AT PSF LIKELY MAINTAINS MVFR
CIGS ALL DAY. WHILE VFR CIGS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINATE AFTER
17-18 UTC AT GFL, ALB AND POU, YET ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN AT PSF, ALB, AND GFL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS, ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP.
BY 00 UTC, EXPECTING CIGS TO TREND BACK TO VFR AT GFL, ALB, AND
POU WHILE PSF LIKELY REMAINS IFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST - NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT BY 14 - 16 UTC. STRONGEST WINDS AT ALB AND PSF, AS
WELL AS WITHIN ANY PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS TREND A BIT LIGHTER
AFTER 00 UTC TONIGHT BUT REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5-8KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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