859
FXUS61 KALY 241559
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1159 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO
TOMORROW WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF TODAY: A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. POP-UP LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS ARE WRAPPING AROUND OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT'S OVERHEAD
FOR THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THESE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS (BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOW 60S AS OF
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REFLECT TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: BEING THAT SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN, WHAT WITH THE COLD POOL OF THE LOW SWEEPING THROUGH
OVERHEAD, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE THE GRADUAL
WANE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF
SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 40S WITH SOME
UPPER 30S AT ELEVATIONS EXCEEDING 1000 FT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS WHERE
IMPROVEMENTS TO CONDITIONS CAN FINALLY BE EXPECTED AS THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES BECOMES MORE NOTICEABLE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY DWINDLE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SLOWLY-DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH JUST A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
GREATER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT ELSEWHERE ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AND EVEN THESE WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH AGAIN WANING
SHOWERS AT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES LARGELY IN
THE 40S.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY HAVE IN ALMOST A WEEK. VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. AND WHILE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY FOR MOST, SOME VERY LIGHT, HIGH-ELEVATION SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND
CATSKILLS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST ONE LAST WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PAIRING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN
80%) FOR DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS SHORT-
LIVED AS CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY COOL, CLOUDY, AND DAYS WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT FOR A
DRY PERIOD TO FINALLY ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ALSO TREND WARMER AND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLY LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY QUICKLY THIS CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD AS
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE WEAK SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THERE IS A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR THE TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, POPS WERE LIMITED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE WEDNESDAY P.M INTO THURSDAY WHEN WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE FURTHER INCREASES FOR RAIN AND EVEN POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WHEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER KINEMATICS ALOFT,
THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. FOR THESE REASONS, WIDESPREAD CHANCE AND
EVEN LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY P.M THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS COOL/CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS AT GFL
VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD TREND
TO MVFR BY 17 UTC. DESPITE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY, THE INTENSITY
REMAINS LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VFR VIS. UPSLOPE FLOW AT PSF
LIKELY MAINTAINS MVFR CIGS ALL DAY. WHILE VFR CIGS SHOULD BE
MORE PREDOMINATE AFTER 17-18 UTC AT GFL, ALB AND POU, SHOWERS
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT A
TERMINAL, A TREND TO MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
RAIN AT PSF, ALB, AND GFL WHILE POU MAY REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH. BY
00 UTC, EXPECTING CIGS TO TREND BACK TO VFR AT GFL, ALB, AND
POU WHILE PSF LIKELY TRENDS TO IFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST - NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT BY 14 - 16 UTC. STRONGEST WINDS
AT ALB AND PSF, AS WELL AS WITHIN ANY PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS TREND A BIT LIGHTER AFTER 00 UTC TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
SUSTAINED AROUND 5-8KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/WEBB
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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