140
FXUS61 KALY 250543
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY CONTINUING TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARDS NORMAL. TUESDAY AND AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN
OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE...AS OF 130 AM EDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
SPATIAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS OUR UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS THE NIGHT DRAWS ON, SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF BUT MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH, LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY KEEP TO THE 40S WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
(ELEVATIONS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT) LOW 50S (MID- HUDSON VALLEY).
WITH CONDITIONS NOT HAVING CHANGED MUCH, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 940 PM EDT...A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NOW CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCU
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THANKS TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ALTHOUGH CAMS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS, AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TOTAL QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY THANKS
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE BREEZE MAY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SHELTERED AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR
SPOTS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER. OTHERWISE, IT WILL STAY FAIRLY
CLOUDY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AND
MONDAY BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30-
40%) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LOWER TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDY AND CALMER (WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH) CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST HELPING DIMINISH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY WARMING UP WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE 60S AND FOR MONDAY IN THE 70S, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS GIVING US A SMALL BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WHEN CHANCES (15 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNS. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50%)
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OUR UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE PATTERN RETURNS UNSETTLED AND DREARY END TO THE MONTH
OF MAY. HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BY LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES TO REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN
SEASONAL IN THE 50S WITH HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR EASTERN ME AND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
TODAY. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, BROKEN-OVERCAST VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE MVFR CIGS IN THE 1-3 KFT AGL RANGE
WILL PERSIST AT KPSF. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 3.5-6
KFT AGL RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU. SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT
KALB/KGFL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. KPSF SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR BY 00Z/MON. KPOU
SHOULD REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH CIGS AROUND 5 KFT
AGL AND ONLY VCSH GROUPS USED.
THE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT AT KALB. THE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
TO AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUST AROUND 20 KT, ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT AT AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GANT
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...WASULA
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