018
FXUS61 KALY 251051
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY CONTINUING TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARDS NORMAL. TUESDAY AND AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN
OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...AS OF 650 AM EDT
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE OUTSIDE OF MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND
POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST SURFACE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS HAVE
TAPERED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH JUST SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [403 AM EDT]
THE SEEMINGLY OMNI-PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW THAT HAS INFLICTED
DAYS WORTH OF RAIN/SHOWERS, CLOUDY SKIES, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MAKE MORE PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY,
ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT TODAY WILL BE A
COMPLETELY DRY DAY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ABOUT THE REAR FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WEAKENING, THESE CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN SPATIAL SPREAD THAN DAYS PRIOR. FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY, SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. THIS SAME FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY POSE A
DETRIMENT TO SHOWER MAINTENANCE ELSEWHERE SEEING AS IT ALSO
PROMOTES DOWNSLOPING INTO VALLEY AREAS. STILL, A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AND THOUGH MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
STILL ADJACENT LOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER RELATIVELY CONSISTENT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN DAYS
PRIOR. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUN, HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 50S ABOVE 2000 FT
AND UPPER 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ANTICIPATED SHOWERS TODAY, THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL END
IN SHOWERS SUCH THAT DRY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING FARTHER INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA, ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
TRULY WANE, YIELDING SOME ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART AND HIGH PRESSURE
ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. FINALLY SOME SUN WILL BE SEEN AS
CLOUDS ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ERUPT IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LINGERS NEARBY AND INSTABILITY MARGINALLY INCREASES.
HOWEVER, THESE, TOO, WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF
AN ISOLATED DOWNPOUR OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST
AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEST. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS A
NON-ZERO PROBABILITY FOR SIMILAR REASONS, BUT WILL ALSO BE
HIGHLY ISOLATED. AND ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY EVENING, LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF,
ESPECIALLY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE FACE OF THE EASTWARD-
BUILDING HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 40S.
A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM DREARY CONDITIONS COMES TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, IT WILL BE A
GORGEOUS, AND MORE TYPICAL, LATE MAY DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BASED ON THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DUE TO SOME WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE WAVE. THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS INCREASE WED NIGHT, AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWS DUE TO WET BULB COOLING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THU, AS THE UPPER LOW
AND THE SYSTEMS OCCLUDED OR COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN BOTH FRI AND SAT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY TIMED
SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
FRI, AND THEN MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, BROKEN-
OVERCAST VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE MVFR CIGS IN
THE 1-3 KFT AGL RANGE WILL PERSIST AT KPSF. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU. SOME HIGH
MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT KALB/KGFL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WE USED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. KPSF SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR BY
00Z/MON. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT AGL AND ONLY VCSH GROUPS USED. A CLEARING TREND IS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CIGS NORTH OF THESE AREAS.
THE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT AT KALB. THE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
TO AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUST AROUND 20 KT, ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT AT AFTER 00Z/MON...AND TREND CALM
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page