586
FXUS61 KALY 251732
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY CONTINUING TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARDS NORMAL. TUESDAY AND AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN
OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
QUICK UPDATE AS OF 9:40 AM TO INCLUDE MENTION OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND NORTHERN TACONICS THROUGH THE
NEXT TWO HOURS AS LATEST RADAR SCANS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH. ALSO INCREASED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS
POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
REST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DOING WELL AND ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [403 AM EDT]
THE SEEMINGLY OMNI-PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW THAT HAS INFLICTED
DAYS WORTH OF RAIN/SHOWERS, CLOUDY SKIES, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MAKE MORE PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY,
ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT TODAY WILL BE A
COMPLETELY DRY DAY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ABOUT THE REAR FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WEAKENING, THESE CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN SPATIAL SPREAD THAN DAYS PRIOR. FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY, SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. THIS SAME FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY POSE A
DETRIMENT TO SHOWER MAINTENANCE ELSEWHERE SEEING AS IT ALSO
PROMOTES DOWNSLOPING INTO VALLEY AREAS. STILL, A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AND THOUGH MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
STILL ADJACENT LOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER RELATIVELY CONSISTENT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN DAYS
PRIOR. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUN, HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 50S ABOVE 2000 FT
AND UPPER 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ANTICIPATED SHOWERS TODAY, THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL END
IN SHOWERS SUCH THAT DRY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING FARTHER INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA, ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
TRULY WANE, YIELDING SOME ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART AND HIGH PRESSURE
ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. FINALLY SOME SUN WILL BE SEEN AS
CLOUDS ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ERUPT IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LINGERS NEARBY AND INSTABILITY MARGINALLY INCREASES.
HOWEVER, THESE, TOO, WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF
AN ISOLATED DOWNPOUR OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST
AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEST. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS A
NON-ZERO PROBABILITY FOR SIMILAR REASONS, BUT WILL ALSO BE
HIGHLY ISOLATED. AND ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY EVENING, LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF,
ESPECIALLY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE FACE OF THE EASTWARD-
BUILDING HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 40S.
A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM DREARY CONDITIONS COMES TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, IT WILL BE A
GORGEOUS, AND MORE TYPICAL, LATE MAY DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BASED ON THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DUE TO SOME WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE WAVE. THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS INCREASE WED NIGHT, AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWS DUE TO WET BULB COOLING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THU, AS THE UPPER LOW
AND THE SYSTEMS OCCLUDED OR COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN BOTH FRI AND SAT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY TIMED
SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
FRI, AND THEN MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD ONE
PASS OVER A TAF SITE. INCLUDED SUCH TEMPO AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU.
SHOWERS END LATER THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM, PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP. THEREAFTER, CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS LIFTING INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT THEN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AT 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/WEBB
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...RATHBUN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page