941
FXUS61 KALY 252330
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE FOR MEMORIAL DAY FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING DAILY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO END THE MONTH OF MAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 730 PM EDT...LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THIS IS PASSING OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK FOR
THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BRIEF IN DURATION, BUT HAVE
BEEN GIVING SOME OCCASIONAL QUICK DOWNPOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
STARTS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THEY SHOULD BE ALL DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION
THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO FINALLY PULL AWAY, CLOUDS MAY
START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AS SOME CLEARING
OCCURS, SOME PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT DIMINISH WITH THE EARLIER SUNRISE NOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10
MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FINALLY MOVING IN FOR TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH CLEARER SKIES FOR TUESDAY. WHILE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 30 PERCENT AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN AND SHOWERS
COULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP, THE PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR THEM ARE IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND TUESDAY RANGE
IN THE 60S AND 70S AS WE CONTINUE OUR GRADUAL RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS COME TO AN END FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS
EAST OUT TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RETURNS
BRINGING ONCE AGAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO END THE MONTH OF
MAY. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50%) CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AS OUR UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE PATTERN RETURNS UNSETTLED.
STAY TUNED WITH LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON IF WE END THE MONTH
SEEING PRECIPITATION FOR EVERY SATURDAY IN MAY, ESPECIALLY HERE IN
THE ALBANY AREA, AS LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING AT LEAST 0.01
INCHES IS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BY LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
TO REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN SEASONAL IN THE 50S
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF PASSING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THESE ARE HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE, FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
VFR WITH CEILINGS IN THE 3500-5000 FT RANGE FOR MOST SITES.
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT,
BUT SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
CLEARING, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY START TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK, MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF. DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE
OF THIS FOG/MIST, WILL KEEP VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE, BUT
SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT 5 MPH
OR LESS.
AFTER SUNRISE, ANY FOG/MIST WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR ALL SITES. SOME SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 3500 FT ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL STAY VFR FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.
A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS
MUCH LESS THAN THE WEEKEND, SO WON'T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...FRUGIS
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