719
FXUS61 KALY 261425
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE MID WEEK
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 30% FROM THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONSISTENT RUNS
FROM THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SE ADIRONDACKS AND TRACKING SOUTH FROM
THERE. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FIRST OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS
BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A RESIDUAL COLD POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH H500 TEMPS AROUND -20C. THESE H500 TEMPS
ARE ABOUT -1 TO -2 STDEVS COLDER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST
NAEFS GUIDANCE. AN IMPULSE IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE LATEST CAMS SUCH AS THE
3-KM NAMNEST AND HRRR SUPPORT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WITH MLCAPES 200-400 J/KG WITH STEEP MID AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR PEA-SIZE HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTH AND
WEST. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG,
EXPECT MAX TEMPS FOR MEMORIAL DAY TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR LATE MAY. WE WENT CLOSE TO THE LATEST NBM VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR TUE BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (40-60%) LATE WED PM INTO WED NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AS LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OR ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION AND THEN SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY
THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE WILL
YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS, AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IN THE MID TO LATE PM. THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES WED NIGHT FOR
HIGHER PROBABILITIES (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS/LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL, AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WARM
FRONT IMPACTS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE WED PM IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S (WARMEST READINGS
NORTH OF ALBANY) AND LOWS DUE TO WET BULB COOLING WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE NORMS
DISCUSSION:
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. INCREASING
CVA AND DIVERGENCE WITH A JET STRENGTHENING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
LOW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND INCREASING LIFT WITH
THE LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY. THESE CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THERE DO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
THIS SYSTEM EVOLUTION, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES AND REFINEMENTS
TO THIS FORECAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, GUIDANCE FAVORS VALUES NEAR TO JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH DOMINANT ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST NBM
AGREES WITH DAILY HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S (VALLEYS),
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S
(VALLEYS).
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...INITIAL TAF CONCERNS ARE AT KGFL/KPSF
WHERE INTERMITTENT FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE DROPS
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT & VARIABLE
WINDS INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KTS BY MID MORNING, AND WILL BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...SPECK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page