044
FXUS61 KALY 261724
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE MID
WEEK AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. SOME OF THESE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE MOHAWK AND
HUDSON VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO RAISE
POPS TO AROUND 30% FROM THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONSISTENT
RUNS FROM THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL CLUSTER OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SE ADIRONDACKS AND TRACKING
SOUTH FROM THERE. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FIRST OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM OF NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
RESIDUAL COLD POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH H500 TEMPS AROUND -20C. THESE H500 TEMPS ARE -1 TO
-2 STDEVS COLDER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE.
AN IMPULSE IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE LATEST CAMS SUCH AS THE 3-KM
NAMNEST AND HRRR SUPPORT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH
MLCAPES 200-400 J/KG WITH STEEP MID AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR PEA- SIZE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FROM THE
TRI CITIES NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FOR MEMORIAL DAY TO
TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE MAY. WE WENT CLOSE TO
THE LATEST NBM VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR TUE BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (40-60%) LATE WED PM INTO WED NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AS LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OR ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION AND THEN SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY
THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE WILL
YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS, AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IN THE MID TO LATE PM. THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES WED NIGHT FOR
HIGHER PROBABILITIES (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS/LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL, AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WARM
FRONT IMPACTS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE WED PM IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S (WARMEST READINGS
NORTH OF ALBANY) AND LOWS DUE TO WET BULB COOLING WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE NORMS
DISCUSSION:
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. INCREASING
CVA AND DIVERGENCE WITH A JET STRENGTHENING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
LOW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND INCREASING LIFT WITH
THE LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY. THESE CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THERE DO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
THIS SYSTEM EVOLUTION, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES AND REFINEMENTS
TO THIS FORECAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, GUIDANCE FAVORS VALUES NEAR TO JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH DOMINANT ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST NBM
AGREES WITH DAILY HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S (VALLEYS),
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S
(VALLEYS).
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT
CUMULUS AT 5KFT OR HIGHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SHOWERS
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES, INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF SHOULD A SHOWER BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TERMINAL.
NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES, THROUGH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
KGFL. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN TREND CALM
TONIGHT THEN VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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