511
FXUS61 KALY 261925
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH FAIR WEATHER
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR
THE MID WEEK AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH A COLD POOL ALOFT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO EARLY EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS AS OF 3 PM
INDICATING AROUND 200-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND/OR SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR, BUT SHOULD BE SPARSE.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL
EFFECTS AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR, WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN
TYPICALLY FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING
WITH POPS < 10% REGION-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS) WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST RESULTING IN
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
WED INTO WED NIGHT, A DUAL-CYCLONE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. THE PRIMARY LOW LOOKS TO TRACK NORTH INTO
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE
SECONDARY LOW TRACKS NORTH FROM THE N. CAROLINA COAST TO THE
DELMARVA AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE, MAINLY LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. WE MAY GET
THROUGH MUCH OF WED DRY, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND ALBANY
NORTH/EAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES(65-70F) SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY AND WARMEST (70-75F)
NORTH/EAST WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE
TO ONLY MENTION 20-30% POPS SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. POPS INCREASE TO 40-60% WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
(ONLY 10-20% CHANCE FOR > 0.50").
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS (T-STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY), BUT ALSO SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT, SO FOR NOW WILL MENTION
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAMES. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN INDICATING A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE PERVASIVE TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURE WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME
HIGHS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT
CUMULUS AT 5KFT OR HIGHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SHOWERS
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES, INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF SHOULD A SHOWER BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TERMINAL.
NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES, THROUGH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
KGFL. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN TREND CALM
TONIGHT THEN VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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