001
FXUS61 KALY 270145
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, AND FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
UPDATE
AS OF 940 PM EDT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY, EARLIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE SPRINKLES ACROSS
HAMILTON COUNTY SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR,
LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY WHERE EARLIER DOWNPOURS OCCURRED, AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, WITH MAINLY 40S ELSEWHERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH A COLD
POOL ALOFT, MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO EARLY EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS
AS OF 3 PM INDICATING AROUND 200-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS
AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR, BUT SHOULD BE SPARSE.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL
EFFECTS AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR, WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN
TYPICALLY FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING
WITH POPS < 10% REGION-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS) WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST RESULTING IN
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
WED INTO WED NIGHT, A DUAL-CYCLONE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. THE PRIMARY LOW LOOKS TO TRACK NORTH INTO
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE
SECONDARY LOW TRACKS NORTH FROM THE N. CAROLINA COAST TO THE
DELMARVA AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE, MAINLY LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. WE MAY GET
THROUGH MUCH OF WED DRY, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND ALBANY
NORTH/EAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES(65-70F) SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY AND WARMEST (70-75F)
NORTH/EAST WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE
TO ONLY MENTION 20-30% POPS SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. POPS INCREASE TO 40-60% WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
(ONLY 10-20% CHANCE FOR > 0.50").
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS (T-STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY), BUT ALSO SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT, SO FOR NOW WILL MENTION
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAMES. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN INDICATING A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE PERVASIVE TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURE WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME
HIGHS.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z/TUE, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL,
WHERE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY LEAD TO INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07Z-11Z/TUE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 6
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/RATHBUN
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