630
FXUS61 KALY 270502
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, AND FAIR WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE MID WEEK AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE...AS OF 1252 AM EDT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST IS FORMING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WE ADDED SOME FOG EARLIER OVER
KGFL AND THE LAKE GEORGE CORRIDOR. TEMPS ARE DROPPING OFF
QUICKER IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S BASED ON THE
NYS MESONET. WE EXPANDED THE UPPER 30S FOR LOWS AND SOME POCKETS
IN THE MID 30S THERE. OVERALL, A COOL, CRISP LATE MAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHERN DACKS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY, EARLIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE SPRINKLES ACROSS
HAMILTON COUNTY SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR,
LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY WHERE EARLIER DOWNPOURS OCCURRED, AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, WITH MAINLY 40S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING
WITH POPS < 10% REGION-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS) WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST RESULTING IN
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
WED INTO WED NIGHT, A DUAL-CYCLONE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. THE PRIMARY LOW LOOKS TO TRACK NORTH INTO
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE
SECONDARY LOW TRACKS NORTH FROM THE N. CAROLINA COAST TO THE
DELMARVA AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE, MAINLY LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. WE MAY GET
THROUGH MUCH OF WED DRY, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND ALBANY
NORTH/EAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES(65-70F) SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY AND WARMEST (70-75F)
NORTH/EAST WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE
TO ONLY MENTION 20-30% POPS SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. POPS INCREASE TO 40-60% WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
(ONLY 10-20% CHANCE FOR > 0.50").
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS (T-STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY), BUT ALSO SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT, SO FOR NOW WILL MENTION
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAMES. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN INDICATING A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE PERVASIVE TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURE WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME
HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL, WHERE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG MAY LEAD TO INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS BETWEEN ROUGHLY
06Z-12Z/TUES. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO
THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/SPECK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page