052
FXUS61 KALY 271735
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING LOCATIONS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE
AS OF 135 PM EDT, A WARM AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA. AS WE ARE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALSO STREAMING IN AHEAD OF A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, 25-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE
IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A DRY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT
MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER
AND/OR WHERE RAIN OCCURRED TODAY. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE
MID-40S TO MID-50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU WITH A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IMPACTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST CAMS INCLUDING THE 3-KM HRRR AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW TREND FOR LIGHT RAINFALL/SHOWERS TO
EXPAND NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ALY FORECAST AREA ON WED. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY HOLD ON FOR A
DRY DAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF I-90 AND THE CAPITAL
REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE FROM ALBANY NORTH AND EAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND EXPECT 60S SO SPOTTY 70F READING SOUTH
AND WEST. THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL-
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVING ACROSS PA INTO NY. A WEAK SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLONE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO FORM INTO A
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WED NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PROBABILITIES
FOR RAIN IN THE 55-75% RANGE. DUE TO WET BULB COOLING LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SHEARS
OUT THU WITH THE PRIMARY LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SECONDARY
SCOOTING NORTHEAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH A DRY SLOT APPROACHING. WE INCLUDED A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO OVER THE W-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU NIGHT WITH DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS >0.50"
ENDING BY 00Z FRI/8 PM THU ARE ONLY 20-40% FOR EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE GRAY AND WET CONDITIONS, THE
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO HEAVY. TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER
THAN NORMAL ON THU BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH 60S AND SOME 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY RISING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
UPSTREAM TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THIS AMONGST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A MUCH STRONGER,
STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO STORM
EVOLUTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AS DETERMINTIC GUIDANCE OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH SYSTEM PHASING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST LIFT/TRACK.
REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ACHIEVED IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW KEEPING PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND LIMITING OVERALL DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN A WARMUP BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH
CIRRUS AROUND. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THESE SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES. IF CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH AT KGFL
OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF CYCLE. WIND WILL BE VARIABLE
AT 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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