062
FXUS61 KALY 271955
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TAPERING OFF TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A WARM AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE WITH MIXED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THESE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT MAY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND/OR WHERE
SHOWERS OCCURRED TODAY. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE NORTHERN SHIFT IN
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW. TRENDS
ARE FAVORING RAIN TO BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS,
DEVELOPING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP A FEW MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID-50S.
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON
AND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING FORCING FOR ASCENT. TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. IT WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID-50S WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE INTERACTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING INLAND OR COASTAL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
(60 TO 75 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY WITH THIS UPDATE. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS, DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
IN SPOTS BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE TROUGH DEPARTS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
LINGERS BUT TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL TREND CLOSER TO IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH
CIRRUS AROUND. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THESE SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES. IF CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH AT KGFL
OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF CYCLE. WIND WILL BE VARIABLE
AT 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
NEAR TERM...RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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