122
FXUS61 KALY 280529
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TAPERING OFF TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE
AS OF 945 PM EDT, THICK VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT A BIT, ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
[PREVIOUS DISCUSSION]...A WARM AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE WITH
MIXED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
SUNSET. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT. THESE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND/OR WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED TODAY. LOWS
FALL BACK INTO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE NORTHERN SHIFT IN
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW. TRENDS
ARE FAVORING RAIN TO BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS,
DEVELOPING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP A FEW MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID-50S.
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON
AND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING FORCING FOR ASCENT. TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. IT WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID-50S WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE INTERACTION WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING INLAND OR COASTAL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
(60 TO 75 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY WITH THIS UPDATE. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS, DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
IN SPOTS BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE TROUGH DEPARTS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
LINGERS BUT TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL TREND CLOSER TO IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 00Z/THU,
EXCEPT AT KGFL THIS MORNING WHERE SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS GOING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN, AS WE USED A TEMPO FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
KALB/KPOU/KPSF WILL STAY VFR WITH A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. ANY MIST OR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AT KGFL PRIOR
TO 12Z/WED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER GRADUALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PROB30 GROUP USED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO KPOU BETWEEN
21Z/WED TO 00Z/THU. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AFTER 00Z/THU FOR KALB-KPSF TO KGFL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WAVE, AS WE WILL SEE VSBYS/CIGS LOWER TO LOW
VFR/MVFR LEVELS.
THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
5-10 KT. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AT 4 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z/THU.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
NEAR TERM...KL/RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...WASULA
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