687
FXUS61 KALY 281442
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
SET UP IN ITS WAKE BEGINNING TONIGHT, WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD AND DRY FOR MOST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
- CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 1042 AM EDT
TODAY IS OFF TO A FAIRLY SUNNY
START FOR MOST, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING RAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
PLENTY OF BREAKS OF SUN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO LARGELY
RISE INTO THE 60S, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF 70 ARE NOTED IN THE
UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CLOUD COVER IS LESS PROMINENT. WITH
THE FORECAST REMAINING IN GOOD SHAPE, FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENSURE THE FORECAST REFLECTED
LATEST OBS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE QUICKLY SHUNTED EAST TODAY AS
A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE LOW, MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA ALOFT. DESPITE THAT, THE VAST MAJORITY
OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE A DRY DAY WITH
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MIXING, WITH PM HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 60S (TERRAIN) TO MID AND UPPER 70S (VALLEYS).
THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MOISTURE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL NOTE THAT THESE CHANCES ARE ON THE
LOWER END (10-40%) WITH STUBBORN DRY AIR IN PLACE, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF DURING THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ADKS/SOUTHERN GREENS DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- THOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS, RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
DISCUSSION:
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AND IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM PHASES WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS, PM HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BUT ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WEST AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVES, ONE FROM ONTARIO AND ANOTHER
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ARE PROGGED UNDERGO PHASING NEARBY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF CVA ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A
RENEWED ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN (40-70%), THOUGH IT REMAINS LOW
IN TERMS OF EXACT STORM TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT QPF.
PM HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 60S (TERRAIN) TO LOW
70S (VALLEYS), WITH LOWS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS)
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- COASTAL LOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH 20-30% CHANCE > 0.75"
RAIN FROM HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS EASTWARD FOR
THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 00Z/SUN.
DISCUSSION:
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A COASTAL WAVE
OR SLIGHTLY INLAND LOW MOVING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KALB-KBOS FOR
PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUING ON SATURDAY. LATEST NBM JUSTIFIES 70-
90% PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL ON SAT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO PHASE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. PWATS RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SOME WEAK ELEVATED MAY BE PRESENT, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED WITH THE CYCLONE. NBM PROBS ARE 20-30%
FOR GREATER THAN 0.75" OF RAINFALL FROM ROUGHLY THE I-87 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S. SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND IT BECOMES WINDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT (DECREASING POPS). LOWS
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHER DACKS. A
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. IT WILL BRISK AND COOL FOR THE OPENING DAY OF JUNE. TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY COOLER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO OPEN THE WEEK WITH THE MID AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING DOWNSTREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPS TREND CLOSER TO EARLY
JUNE NORMALS. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST NBM
AND WPC GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 00Z/THU.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PROB30 GROUP USED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO KPOU BETWEEN 22Z/WED
TO 02Z/THU. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER
02Z-04Z/THU FOR KALB-KPSF TO KGFL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WAVE, AS WE WILL SEE VSBYS/CIGS LOWER TO LOW VFR/MVFR
LEVELS EARLY THU MORNING.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KALB IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 4 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z/THU.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
NEAR TERM...GANT/SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
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