330
FXUS61 KALY 281731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEAUTIFUL SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW COURTESY OF A PASSING
DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM
UP ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD AND DRY FOR MOST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
- CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 130 PM
ONCE AGAIN FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. RAIN APPROACHING THE REGION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, SO THE MOST NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WAS TO DELAY POPS SLIGHTLY. ALL ELSE REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE QUICKLY SHUNTED EAST TODAY AS
A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE LOW, MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA ALOFT. DESPITE THAT, THE VAST MAJORITY
OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE A DRY DAY WITH
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MIXING, WITH PM HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 60S (TERRAIN) TO MID AND UPPER 70S (VALLEYS).
THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MOISTURE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL NOTE THAT THESE CHANCES ARE ON THE
LOWER END (10-40%) WITH STUBBORN DRY AIR IN PLACE, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF DURING THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ADKS/SOUTHERN GREENS DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- THOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS, RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
DISCUSSION:
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AND IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM PHASES WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS, PM HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BUT ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WEST AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVES, ONE FROM ONTARIO AND ANOTHER
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ARE PROGGED UNDERGO PHASING NEARBY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF CVA ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A
RENEWED ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN (40-70%), THOUGH IT REMAINS LOW
IN TERMS OF EXACT STORM TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT QPF.
PM HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 60S (TERRAIN) TO LOW
70S (VALLEYS), WITH LOWS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS)
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESIDUAL RAIN FROM SATURDAY'S NOR'EASTER WILL MAKE FOR A WET
START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES BENEATH THE NORTHEAST-DEPARTING SYSTEM. BY THIS POINT,
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE-
ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS GIVEN THE STALL OF THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. BROAD TROUGHING
PERSISTING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL JOIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO BRING A MUCH NEEDED
REPRIEVE FROM DREARY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE BY EARLY JUNE STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN IN THE 40S
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING TO THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN, SO ONLY SITE WHERE PREVAILING
SHOWERS WILL BE MENTION IS AT KPOU, WITH SEVERAL PROB30 GROUPS AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER CHANCES AND SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR INITIALLY,
WITH IFR EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY WITH A
FEW MORE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 2-6 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...JPV
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