864
FXUS61 KALY 290047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
847 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW COURTESY OF A
PASSING DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
A GRADUAL WARM UP ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
UPDATE:
LIGHT STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS. MINOR UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS IN
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND REMAIN
STEADY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
DOING WELL AND ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING, SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TRANQUILITY PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM AN
ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO TRIUMPH OVER MOIST,
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PAIRING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND UVVS SUCH THAT THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN
AND SHOWERS FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, AND SOUTHERN
GREENS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP
TO FURTHER OVERCOME DRIER LOW-LEVELS. STILL, NUISANCE SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
NUISANCE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE ONCE SURFACE WAVE
DEEPENS INTO A WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
CLOSED LOW CONVERSELY WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ALOFT. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE, VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION CAN BE
ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWERS HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AS BOTH THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CLOUDY AND RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS THAT ARE A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 60S IN LARGE VALLEY AREAS. A
BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION COMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
THOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON, IT IS CLEAR THAT
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST.
GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SYSTEM REPRESENTATIVE OF A NEUTRAL-
TILT, "TYPE A" WARM SEASON NOR'EASTER BRINGING 0.5" TO LOCALIZED
1.5" THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST RUNS HAVE INDICATED
MORE OF A LACK OF PHASING OF THE PRIMARY, CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH
DISPLACES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE COASTAL LOW FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD INEVITABLY SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN TO THE EAST AND MAY PROMOTE THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO
OUR REGION, ULTIMATELY GIVING US MUCH LESS RAIN THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL
SOAKING RAIN THAT POSES LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESIDUAL RAIN FROM SATURDAY'S NOR'EASTER WILL MAKE FOR A WET
START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES BENEATH THE NORTHEAST-DEPARTING SYSTEM. BY THIS POINT,
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE-
ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS GIVEN THE STALL OF THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. BROAD TROUGHING
PERSISTING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL JOIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO BRING A MUCH NEEDED
REPRIEVE FROM DREARY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE BY EARLY JUNE STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN IN THE 40S
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING TO THE 50S.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WE START THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR KPOU, KEPT THE PREVAILING GROUP
FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 00Z TO 12Z. FOR KPSF, KALB, KGFL,
KEPT MENTION OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PROB30 GROUPS AS DRY
AIR OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO KEEP RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SCATTERED
AND DIFFICULT TO STAY ORGANIZED. CEILINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING BACK TO
MVFR AND VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/WEBB
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...WEBB
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