752
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW COURTESY OF A
PASSING DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
A GRADUAL WARM UP ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE AS 100 AM EDT...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS WITH RADAR AND
MODEL TRENDS. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH MOST REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. MOST NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED MORE
TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE SURFACE LOW. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TRANQUILITY PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM AN
ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO TRIUMPH OVER MOIST,
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PAIRING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND UVVS SUCH THAT THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN
AND SHOWERS FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, AND SOUTHERN
GREENS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP
TO FURTHER OVERCOME DRIER LOW-LEVELS. STILL, NUISANCE SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
NUISANCE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE ONCE SURFACE WAVE
DEEPENS INTO A WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
CLOSED LOW CONVERSELY WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ALOFT. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE, VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION CAN BE
ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWERS HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AS BOTH THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CLOUDY AND RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS THAT ARE A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 60S IN LARGE VALLEY AREAS. A
BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION COMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
THOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON, IT IS CLEAR THAT
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST.
GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SYSTEM REPRESENTATIVE OF A NEUTRAL-
TILT, "TYPE A" WARM SEASON NOR'EASTER BRINGING 0.5" TO LOCALIZED
1.5" THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST RUNS HAVE INDICATED
MORE OF A LACK OF PHASING OF THE PRIMARY, CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH
DISPLACES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE COASTAL LOW FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD INEVITABLY SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN TO THE EAST AND MAY PROMOTE THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO
OUR REGION, ULTIMATELY GIVING US MUCH LESS RAIN THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL
SOAKING RAIN THAT POSES LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESIDUAL RAIN FROM SATURDAY'S NOR'EASTER WILL MAKE FOR A WET
START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES BENEATH THE NORTHEAST-DEPARTING SYSTEM. BY THIS POINT,
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE-
ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS GIVEN THE STALL OF THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. BROAD TROUGHING
PERSISTING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL JOIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO BRING A MUCH NEEDED
REPRIEVE FROM DREARY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE BY EARLY JUNE STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN IN THE 40S
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING TO THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SFC WARM FRONT THAT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT POU GIVEN ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS REMAIN LIGHT AND SCATTERED THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT PSF, GFL AND ALB
PERIODICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING (10 - 14 UTC). BY 15 - 18 UTC,
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS, RESULTING IN CIG
IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. POU IS THE EXCEPTION AND LIKELY REMAINS
MVFR. BY 20-22 UTC, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY PUSHES TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIGS
DROPPING BACK TOWARDS MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS LIKELY
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VFR VIS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/SPECK
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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