011
FXUS61 KALY 290833
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMMONPLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE REGION. A WARM SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DISCUSSION:
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TWO SURFACE LOWS: ONE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
HEADING INTO TODAY, BOTH LOWS ARE PROGGED BY CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE PARENT
CLOSED LOW ALOFT BROADENS AND BECOMES MORE TROUGH-LIKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, RESULTING IN WEAK PULSES OF CVA AND LIFT
EJECTING ACROSS NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY NEARER TO THE TROUGH,
WHERE AMOUNTS UP THE A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AS PM HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S/60S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WITH VALUES IN THE 60S/LOW 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DISCUSSION:
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD GET SOME UMPH TO IT AS A JET STREAK DEVELOPS
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP
EJECT MORE WEAK PULSES OF CVA AND LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE MOST WILL BE DRY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ADKS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT
AND 925-850 HPA TEMPS WARMING BACK UP NEAR +10C, PM HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO MID 70S (VALLEYS)
DESPITE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS).
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ENSURING
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CONCURRENTLY, THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH THE INCREASING CVA AND DIVERGENCE
PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM-SEASON NOR'EASTER ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK HAS
INCREASED IN THIS LATEST RUN OF GUIDANCE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORING A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WITH THE LOW (PWATS IN THE 0.75-1.50" RANGE) AND LIFT
SHOULD ENSURE BENEFICIAL QPF, THOUGH DISAGREEMENTS IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT REMAIN WITH HIGH AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORS A RANGE OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE ADKS, WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO AROUND
1.50" ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKSHIRES.
RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST, AS MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S (TERRAIN) TO UPPER 60S
(VALLEYS), THOUGH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST COOLER VALUES.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CAA WILL HELP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO
THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO MID 40S (VALLEYS).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE WITHIN OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BETWEEN
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL OVERHEAD, WE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VT. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WERE KEPT DRY GIVEN
PALTRY LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS 30-40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE UPDATES.
OTHERWISE, WITH 850HPA ISOTHERMS 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR JUNE 1, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD SPANNING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S. EVEN
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY BUT ENSEMBLE AND EVEN
SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AGAIN
GIVEN LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THUS, POPS WERE KEPT UNDER 10% FOR
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING WARMER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS IN A MILDER AIR MASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS FURTHER TO OUR EAST ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD AND SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. SOME MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS IT SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW COOLER/DREAR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK BUT GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE MEMBERS SUPPORT A WARMING/DRYING TREND, OUR CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS THINKING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JUNE SIT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SFC WARM FRONT THAT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT POU GIVEN ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS REMAIN LIGHT AND SCATTERED THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT PSF, GFL AND ALB
PERIODICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING (10 - 14 UTC). BY 15 - 18 UTC,
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS, RESULTING IN CIG
IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. POU IS THE EXCEPTION AND LIKELY REMAINS
MVFR. BY 20-22 UTC, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY PUSHES TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIGS
DROPPING BACK TOWARDS MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS LIKELY
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VFR VIS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
NEAR TERM...SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page