956
FXUS61 KALY 291744
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST
THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER BY SATURDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
LINGER SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE
ON DECK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 145 PM EDT
ONCE AGAIN, FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENSURE THE
FORECAST REFLECTS LATEST OBS. MOST OF THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED THE REGION, THOUGH SOME VIRGA IS LIKELY OCCURRING
WITHIN THE EASTERN MOHAWK AND UPPER-HUDSON VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE KENX RADAR. AN ISOLATED TO
HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
[652 AM EDT]
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TWO SURFACE LOWS:
ONE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. BOTH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD CLOSED LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HEADING INTO TODAY, BOTH LOWS ARE PROGGED BY CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE PARENT
CLOSED LOW ALOFT BROADENS AND BECOMES MORE TROUGH-LIKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, RESULTING IN WEAK PULSES OF CVA AND LIFT
EJECTING ACROSS NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY NEARER TO THE TROUGH,
WHERE AMOUNTS UP THE A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AS PM HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S/60S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WITH VALUES IN THE 60S/LOW 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DISCUSSION:
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD GET SOME UMPH TO IT AS A JET STREAK DEVELOPS
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP
EJECT MORE WEAK PULSES OF CVA AND LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE MOST WILL BE DRY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ADKS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT
AND 925-850 HPA TEMPS WARMING BACK UP NEAR +10C, PM HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO MID 70S (VALLEYS)
DESPITE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS).
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ENSURING
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CONCURRENTLY, THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH THE INCREASING CVA AND DIVERGENCE
PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM-SEASON NOR'EASTER ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK HAS
INCREASED IN THIS LATEST RUN OF GUIDANCE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORING A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WITH THE LOW (PWATS IN THE 0.75-1.50" RANGE) AND LIFT
SHOULD ENSURE BENEFICIAL QPF, THOUGH DISAGREEMENTS IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT REMAIN WITH HIGH AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORS A RANGE OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE ADKS, WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO AROUND
1.50" ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKSHIRES.
RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST, AS MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S (TERRAIN) TO UPPER 60S
(VALLEYS), THOUGH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST COOLER VALUES.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CAA WILL HELP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO
THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO MID 40S (VALLEYS).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT, RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY'S NOR'EASTER LINGER INTO
THE EVENING SUNDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BY THIS POINT, SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
LAKE-ADJACENT AND UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THOUGH TROUGHING AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING AS EASTWARD-BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE LARGELY
COUNTERACTS RISING MOTION FROM A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN
FLOW. THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A DRIER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS MET WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. IN FACT, BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN CRESTING OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST, PROVIDING A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FROM DREARY, SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES, TOO, WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY, BUT WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BEING IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT, WARMING TO THE MID.UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS AS OF 1:15 PM
EDT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS POSSIBLY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL THE TREND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS LOOKS LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE, SO WE JUST
INCLUDED VCSH GROUPS AND NARROWED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. BRIEF
MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER ONE OF
THE TERMINALS.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/MIST THAT DEVELOPS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST FORMATION IS LOW, AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE, BUT NEVERTHELESS IF FOG
DOES FORM THEN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY FOG. ANY FOG/MIST
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 12Z, BUT THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR FOR THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
5-10 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
TOMORROW MORNING INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 4-7 KT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RUSSO/GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...MAIN
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