035
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST
THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER BY SATURDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
LINGER SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE
ON DECK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
DESPITE AN UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE, CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COUNTERACTS LIFT FROM A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ALOFT THAT ARE WORKING IN TANDEM TO TRY AND PRODUCE LIGHT
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. ACCORDING TO THE KENX RADAR, REFLECTIVITIES ARE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND. STILL, THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR, MAINLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND TACONICS, AS THE SURFACE WAVE AND
SHORTWAVE PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT, AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AFTER ABOUT 2 AM BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCES, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGIONWIDE.
REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME OF ANY NUISANCE PRECIPITATION,
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON
THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S, MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN, SOUTH, AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
0.5" OF RAIN RANGE FROM AROUND 60-80%.
DISCUSSION:
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER PRODUCER. RISING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A PERSISTENCE OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY WITH VALUES ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION
OVERHEAD TOMORROW, SLOWLY SINKING FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE, A REMNANT OF TODAY'S CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AS THE PRIMARY LOW SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST OVERHEAD, THE SHORTWAVE DOWNSTREAM WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS A RESULT OF ITS EMBEDDED,
STRENGTHENING JET MAX. AN ENHANCED LOBE OF CVA WILL THEN
DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC, TRIGGERING A SURFACE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE CYCLONE. AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO TAKE ON ITS NEGATIVE TILT AND PHASE MORE OR LESS WITH
THE SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING TROUGH OFF THE CLOSED LOW, THE SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST,
SUCH THAT A NEUTRAL TILT, "TYPE A", WARM-SEASON NOR'EASTER TAKES
FULL SHAPE. AS A RESULT, A BROAD RAIN SHIELD WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. RAIN
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO
MERE SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD, MOIST, CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN, THOUGH HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE,
LOOKS TO FALL FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WITH
ANYWHERE FROM 0.5" TO 1.25" EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.5" PRIMARILY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.5"
ARE ANTICIPATED.
WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS CERTAINLY INCREASED IN SOME ASPECTS OF THE
RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD ESPECIALLY IN THE ULTIMATE LOCATION AND TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE RESULTING
ORIENTATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHING AT LEAST
0.25" TO 0.5" REGIONWIDE. LATEST HREF AND LREF ENSEMBLES
INDICATE ABOUT 70-100% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.5" FALLING
FROM WITHIN, SOUTH, AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH A
10-40% CHANCE OF THE SAME FALLING IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. IN LOOKING AT THE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1", THE
LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES SHOW ABOUT A 10-50% FOR AREAS WITHIN, SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS ALSO GIVES HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME, AFTER NOT HAVING
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO, THIS WILL
BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE PROBABILISTIC
QPF, THERE IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER END
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. BECAUSE THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE LOW, IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORM A CONSENSUS ON THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN
1" AND THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
RECEIVING THIS MUCH. SHOULD THE LOW HUG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND
LIKE THE ECMWF/CMCNH ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC, THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS SHOULD END UP FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER, A TRACK FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LIKE THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND RAP DETERMINISTIC
INDICATE, WOULD MEAN MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION REGIONWIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT, RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY'S NOR'EASTER LINGER INTO
THE EVENING SUNDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BY THIS POINT, SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
LAKE-ADJACENT AND UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THOUGH TROUGHING AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING AS EASTWARD-BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE LARGELY
COUNTERACTS RISING MOTION FROM A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN
FLOW. THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A DRIER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS MET WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. IN FACT, BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN CRESTING OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST, PROVIDING A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FROM DREARY, SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES, TOO, WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY, BUT WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BEING IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT, WARMING TO THE MID.UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS AS OF 1:15 PM
EDT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS POSSIBLY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL THE TREND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS LOOKS LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE, SO WE JUST
INCLUDED VCSH GROUPS AND NARROWED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. BRIEF
MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER ONE OF
THE TERMINALS.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/MIST THAT DEVELOPS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST FORMATION IS LOW, AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE, BUT NEVERTHELESS IF FOG
DOES FORM THEN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY FOG. ANY FOG/MIST
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 12Z, BUT THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR FOR THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
5-10 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
TOMORROW MORNING INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 4-7 KT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RUSSO/GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...MAIN
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