587
FXUS61 KALY 251736
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACKING
ALONG IT, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY TODAY.
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
AS OF 610 AM EDT, SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S WITHIN THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS, WITH A FEW
LOCALLY WARMER AREAS CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL REGION.
TODAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A TOUCH COOLER/LESS
HUMID COMPARED TO THE LAST 2 DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-90 AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. WE STILL EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S, PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR THESE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, MAX HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 90-95 IN
VALLEY AREAS AND MAINLY 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH SOME
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES, THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AROUND
MIDDAY FOR AREAS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-90, THEN SLOWLY EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK AS GREAT AS PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH MU CAPES GENERALLY 500-750
J/KG, WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF ~1000 J/KG PER SPC HREF. 0-6
KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30 KT NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, AND 30-40
KT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT GIVEN DCAPES 700-1000 J/KG,
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO
LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. SPC HAS
REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM OUR REGION, SHIFTING IT FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES,
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH GRADUALLY
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD. LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, AND MAINLY 60S TO THE
SOUTH.
FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY, FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS SOUTH/WEST OF THE
REGION, AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TO OCCUR, AND WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEARBY, PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-87/SOUTH OF I-90. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN LOOK TO BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE EXPANDING TO MOST AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PWAT'S INCREASE TO ~1.50
INCHES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S, ALTHOUGH SHOULD A STEADY RAIN OCCUR, MAX TEMPS MAY
REMAIN EVEN COOLER IN SOME AREAS, PERHAPS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
-THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COULD NECESSITATE ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES FOR SOME
VALLEY AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
LONG TERM BEGINS AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARDS
THROUGH THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING
NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MARITIME CANADA.
THEREFORE, WE TRENDED PORTIONS OF THE ADKS AND SOUTHEASTERN VT
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE NBM. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AROUND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE SUNSET, BUT SOME
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE KEEP THE BEST FORCING OFF TO OUR WEST UNTIL WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY, AND THUS HAVE ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WPC HAS
ACCORDINGLY PLACED THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL
RISK ERO. CONVECTION DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
SUNDAY BEGINS OUR NEXT STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS, AND IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY,
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WELL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE HOTTER DAYS, AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO +17 TO +19C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS, AND IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE MUGGY SIDE. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HOT/HUMID AS THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WERE, SOME VALLEY AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90, COULD
GET CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE MILD, MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL TUESDAY. SO,
MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO DAYS 8-14, CPC IS EXPECTING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIP.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 26/12Z. ACROSS
THE KGFL AND KPSF AIRFIELD, VICINITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE LESS 10
PERCENT FOR ANY CEILING OR VISIBILITY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES
SO KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. FOR AFTER 12Z, PROBABILITIES
BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30% FOR RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR
KPOU, KPSF, AND KALB SO KEPT MENTION OF ONSET TIMING OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR THESE TAF SITES. WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ059-060-
064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...WEBB
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