490
FXUS61 KALY 252356
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BEGINS TONIGHT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
DISCUSSION:
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT HAS EXPIRED. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHERN VT WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD. THE KENX RADAR REMAINS QUIET OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE BACK IN TOWARDS THE I-84 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A COOLER AIR MASS AND LESS MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, BETWEEN 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION. OTHERWISE, A DRY
EVENING IS IN STORE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WHEN CHANCES INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN TACONICS FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES BECOME
COMFORTABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR TOMORROW MORNING, A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASES FROM 30 PERCENT TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AND A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS BRINGING THESE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO FRIDAY (50%). AS INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IS PRESENT ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER BY LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 4.3 DATA
IS BETWEEN 15 AND 35 PERCENT, CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHER CHANCES (70-80%) ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AND LOWER CHANCES (30-40%) ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WE START THE WEEKEND OFF WITH 70-80% CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS BASED
ON LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS AND LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS 4.3 PROBABILISTIC DATA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS FAR AHEAD
OF TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS FORECAST TIME SHOULD BE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE TO MOVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING THESE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW
FAST THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES COULD MOVE
THROUGH. THIS BRINGS DAILY CHANCES (30-50%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE 80S. DEPENDING ON THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVERAGE, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WHERE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN N AND
NEW ENGLAND. A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF OVERNIGHT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 16Z/THU.
SOME CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER 4-6 KFT AGL FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTH TO
KPOU BY 16-18Z/THU. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS BETWEEN
18Z/THU AND 00Z/FRI AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST 5-10 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 06Z/THU. THE
WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10
KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/WEBB
NEAR TERM...WASULA/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...WASULA
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