936
FXUS61 KALY 260524
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BEGINS OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE
50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 1:20 AM EDT
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
LATEST ASOS AND NYS MESONET OBS, BUT WITH 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS NOT
THAT FAR TO OUR NORTH IN THE ADKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WE SHOULD
SEE DEW POINTS LOWER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT MORE CLEARING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW...
PREVIOUS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND IT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
NY. THE KENX RADAR REMAINS QUIET OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE
BACK IN TOWARDS THE I-84 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES BECOME
COMFORTABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR TOMORROW MORNING, A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASES FROM 30 PERCENT TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AND A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS BRINGING THESE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO FRIDAY (50%). AS INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IS PRESENT ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER BY LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 4.3 DATA
IS BETWEEN 15 AND 35 PERCENT, CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHER CHANCES (70-80%) ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AND LOWER CHANCES (30-40%) ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WE START THE WEEKEND OFF WITH 70-80% CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS BASED
ON LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS AND LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS 4.3 PROBABILISTIC DATA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS FAR AHEAD
OF TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS FORECAST TIME SHOULD BE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE TO MOVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING THESE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW
FAST THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES COULD MOVE
THROUGH. THIS BRINGS DAILY CHANCES (30-50%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE 80S. DEPENDING ON THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVERAGE, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WHERE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA, WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHRA MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE HAS SCATTERED SHRA
DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
AND INTERACTS WITH GREATER MOISTURE. SO WILL MENTION PROB30 AT KPOU
STARTING AT 09Z TODAY, WITH OTHER SITES DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR DURING WHEN ANY SHRA OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 3-6
KT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-8 KT THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/WEBB
NEAR TERM...MAIN/WASULA/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...JPV
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