099
FXUS61 KALY 261029
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH
DAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. DRIER BUT WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOK HOTTER AND MORE HUMID, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 6:30 AM EDT
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS IN ULSTER, DUTCHESS,
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT,
SO POPS HERE WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FEW
SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ADKS, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN
HERE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID MORNING. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS, BUT MORE NOTABLE CHANGES TO DEW
POINTS, AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S DEW POINTS TO OUR NORTH NEVER
GOT INTO OUR ADK AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
REMAINS ON TRACK...
PREVIOUS
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF OUR REGION,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARDS FROM CANADA, A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS ARE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN COLD
FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR, WITH A SECOND FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
THIS HAS LED TO A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH MID 50S IN THE ADKS AND LOW 70S NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR.
ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT, WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS
WHICH SHOULD STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHERN FEW COUNTIES.
THIS MORNING, THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
ULSTER, DUTCHESS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND MID-
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST, LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE E/NE WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH
MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT TRACKS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT, SO SHOWERS COULD BE FAIRLY
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW POCKETS
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME STORMS COULD
CONTAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.5"
(LOCALLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE I-84 CORRIDOR). HOWEVER, WITH MID-
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING TO 30-40 KT, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
(<0.25" OF RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE LAST 5 DAYS), AND
AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY, WE COLLABORATED WITH WPC TO
REMOVE THE MARGINAL RISK ERO FROM OUR REGION TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR MAINE, WITH
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. WITH
THE UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING OFF TO OUR EAST, SHOWER COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONT STILL OVER
OUR REGION. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S AND MID TO UPPER 50S DEW POINTS. TOMORROW, THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE S/SE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHWARDS, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 60S (TERRAIN) TO 70S (VALLEYS). THE MID-LEVEL FRONT
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION, KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF DRY PERIODS DURING THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE, THEN TRACKS NORTH
OF OUR REGION NEAR THE NY/CANADA BORDER ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL HELP LIFT THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR
REGION, ALTHOUGH EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE FRONT CAN LIFT
NORTH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES IN THE GUIDANCE, LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
LONG THE HIGH TO OUR EAST CAN LINGER AND HELP TO KEEP THE
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COOLER AIR LOCKED IN. WE HAVE KEPT PORTIONS
OF THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS RELATIVELY COOLER IN THE 60S,
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK OUT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR IS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOW 80S SATURDAY. ALONG THE MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION, ALTHOUGH IF THE
MID-LEVEL FRONT WERE TO BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWARDS THEN
PORTIONS OF THE ADKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY COULD POTENTIALLY
GET INTO THE HEAVIER RAIN. AT THIS TIME, THIS LOOKS LIKE A LESS-
LIKELY SCENARIO, WITH ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE FOR >1" OF RAIN IN
12 HOURS PER THE LATEST NBM. WPC HAS KEPT THEIR SLIGHT RISK ERO
NORTH OF OUR CWA, WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WHICH TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DYNAMICS
DON'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, AND SPC JUST HAS OUR AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS
THAT CAN BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND GET SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION (BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF I-90), WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF A COUPLE OF STRONGER
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS STILL REMAINING ELEVATED, AROUND
2". SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
50S (TERRAIN) TO 60S (VALLEYS) FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES OF 90-95 ARE LIKELY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUN, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SO MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF/LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DRY/TRANQUIL
WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN WARM CONSIDERABLY ON MON, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 85-90F RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES OF 90-95F ARE
EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES, SHOWER PROBABILITIES
INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT, SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUE IF THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS
WARM AS MON DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HUMIDITY. WED LOOKS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA, WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHRA MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE HAS SCATTERED SHRA
DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
AND INTERACTS WITH GREATER MOISTURE. SO WILL MENTION PROB30 AT KPOU
STARTING AT 09Z TODAY, WITH OTHER SITES DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR DURING WHEN ANY SHRA OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 3-6
KT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-8 KT THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
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