081
FXUS61 KALY 270230
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK, WITH WARMER AIR AND STORMS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. DRIER, BUT WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY, WITH
HOTTER AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE AS OF 1030 PM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS FAIRLY QUIET WITH
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING HAS
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND NICELY SHOWS THE ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE SFC HIGH OFF THE COAST NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH
VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE RE-TOOLED THE POPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG. MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE A LIGHT ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DENSE
OVERCAST WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE ONGOING
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE HEADING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TONIGHT. CAN'T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN LOW LEVELS OF MUCAPE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SKIES
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 50S (TERRAIN) TO NEAR
60 (VALLEYS), DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY FOR MOST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH AND COOL, DRY EAST FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP
KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME, THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ADKS NEARER TO THE MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH PM HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 70S (VALLEYS). SOME ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY NOT EVEN SEE 60.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, A SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL HELP LIFT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING
IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (40-60%) MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND US/CANADA BORDER, WITH LESSER
VALUES TO THE SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER IN
THE 50S TO MID 60S, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY BACK NEAR TO NORMAL IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S (THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS VALUE
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN GET,
SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL SYSTEM DYNAMICS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS MORNING'S MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION, AND UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WARM WE WILL GET ALSO MAKE
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOW. HOWEVER, THOSE WHO CAN GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR (BEST THINKING RIGHT NOW IS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY) COULD SEE A RISK OF PM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE
STRONG. SPC MAINTAINS A GENERAL THUNDER RISK AT THIS TIME. STORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN GIVEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 DEGREES AND PWATS IN THE 1.50-2.00" RANGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EARLY NEAR WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES NEARING 95 MONDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION:
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXIT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MOST SEEING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAYTIME. FOR MONDAY, RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEND A WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS GO-AROUND WITH 925-850
HPA VALUES AROUND 15-20 DEGREES C, ALLOWING PM HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE (SOME NEAR 90 IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY).
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S/ TO LOWER 70S, PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 90-95F ARE EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT,
SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY, BUT
WILL REMAIN WARM, HUMID AND ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
BY MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CHANCES
(10-30%) OF PM RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
REGARDLESS OF THE STORM CHANCES, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS
HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THRU 00Z/SAT...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU CURRENTLY WITH CIGS 3-5 KFT AGL. A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH BASES
LOWERING TO 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL PRIOR TO 06Z/FRI FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES. BASES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR WITH CIGS 3.5-6 KFT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING 14Z-16Z/FRI TIME FRAME. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WE USED PROB30 GROUPS WITH MVFR/LOW
VFR CONDITIONS OR JUST A VCSH GROUP AS FAR EAST AS KPSF. THE
WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 7 KT OR LESS AND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KT TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SPECK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...WASULA
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