897
FXUS61 KALY 280520
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 1:20 AM EDT
1006 MB SFC LOW NOW LOCATED IN
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARDS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH PAST OUR REGION, WITH MORE PRECIP ALONG THE
MID-LEVEL FRONT IN SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS DRY
AT THIS TIME, ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL AND SFC WARM FRONTS ALSO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR
REGION. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF STRATUS TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL SE
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION SEEN AROUND 850 MB ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL, MAINLY IN THE 50S TO 60S. DEW POINTS
WERE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SO WE PROPAGATED THIS TREND OUT THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE SFC WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH AND WE GET
INTO THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS
TONIGHT, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT, BUT EXPECTING MOST TO REMAIN DRY. WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW, EXPECTING MORNING LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 60S (VALLEYS).
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PM SHOWERS AND STORMS
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LIGHTNING
DISCUSSION:
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER BY MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE GREENS, CATSKILL AND ADKS, THE AREA WILL BE
FULLY IMMERSED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID 80S (LOWER
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS).
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. MAJORITY OF
CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPE/MLCAPES CLIMBING
AROUND TO 1000-2000 J/KG) AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR (30-40
KTS) THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AS THE BEST LIFT/VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN DISPLACED FROM EACH OTHER (HIGHEST
LIFT/SHEAR TO THE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW, AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC), WHICH MAY RESULT
AT COVERAGE BEING MORE SCATTERED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
WHOLE CWA. WITH NEAR STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORING EASTWARD
STORM PROGRESSION AGAINST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT, STORM MODE OF A LINE TO BROKEN LINE REMAINS FAVORED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION, PWATS OF
AROUND 1.6-2.0" AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD ENSURE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
STORMS. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN 30-40 KT STORM MOTION AND THAT WE HAVE
PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST WEEK.
WE WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
WHILE IT WILL BE LESS HUMID, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER
SIDE WITH PM HIGHS SUNDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S (TERRAIN) TO LOW
80S (VALLEYS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EARLY NEAR WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES AROUND 95-100 MONDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MID WEEK
DISCUSSION:
FOR MONDAY, RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SEND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS
GO-AROUND WITH 925-850 HPA VALUES AROUND 15-20 DEGREES C, ALLOWING
PM HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE (SOME NEAR 90 TO EVEN
LOW 90S IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT AND HUDSON
VALLEY). WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S/ TO LOWER 70S,
PEAK HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 95-100F ARE EXPECTED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORIES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT,
SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY, WITH FAVORABILITY FOR THIS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN WARM, HUMID AND ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES.
DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. REGARDLESS OF THE STORM CHANCES, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY
LESS HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. CIG HEIGHTS INITIALLY VFR/MVFR WILL LOWER TO SOLID
MVFR, WITH EVEN IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 10Z
OR 11Z THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO LOWER COMPARED TO
GUIDANCE, SO HAVE DELAYED LOWERING BY A FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS AT KALB/KGFL WITH IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR AT KPOU/KPSF BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OVC CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAINLY
BKN DURING THE AFTERNOON, ONCE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION. SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL MENTION PROB30
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TSRA INCREASES. WINDS WILL BE
INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 4-12 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT
KALB, BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AT 6-12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
NEAR TERM...MAIN/SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...JPV
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