338
FXUS61 KALY 281951
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG TOMORROW
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY. SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY RETURNS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
FROM NOW THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT: INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN NY ARE STILL FAVORED BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND HOW STRONG THEY
BECOME CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AS LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS FOR THE LATEST ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, SUCH
AS WHERE ARE CURRENT STORMS AND ENERGY NEEDED TO STRENGTHEN THEM.
SOME MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING, WHILE
OTHERS ONLY HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING. USUALLY, WE LIKE TO SEE
MORE AGREEMENT WITH CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT AS
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (ALSO KNOWN AS CAMS), ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON CONDITIONS NEEDED, THIS HINDERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON HOW STRONG STORMS BECOME AND WHO COULD SEE A
SEVERE STORM TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM TONIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARDS
ARE STILL LIGHTNING, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 11 PM TONIGHT: ONCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR TOMORROW
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
-SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN
30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY RANGE IN THE 80S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS RANGE IN THE 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. FOR
MONDAY, SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LATEST
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.3 DATA FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES IS BETWEEN 80 AND 90
PERCENT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, MID TO UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY, HELDERBERGS, AND PORTIONS OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS.
ONE FORECAST NOTE IS THAT THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FEEL-
LIKE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE OUTSIDE (HOT) FOR MONDAY AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY. OUR
CRITERIA FOR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 95 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NY, SO WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IF HEAT HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE (70%) FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-40%) ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS FAVORED
BY LATEST NBM DATA AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
PARTICULARLY FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WHILE
THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT, PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND STRONG
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ON IF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY. AS THE 4TH OF JULY IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY, DRY CONDITIONS COULD BE IN STORE IF STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
TUESDAY MORNING COULD FEEL MUGGY AS A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
AND LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY BRINGS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S
AND 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS RANGE IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AND BECOME MAINLY BKN DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PROB30 MENTIONS FOR
NOW AS LATEST CAMS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING OF
STORMS FOR THE TERMINALS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
IMPACTS MAINLY AT KALB/KPOU WHERE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ONCE IT PASSES, WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AREAWIDE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB, INCREASING TO
5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT,
AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 5
KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
NEAR TERM...WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...SPECK
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