603
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT BREEZY TOMORROW BEFORE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH RETURNS FOR MONDAY. RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE
RADAR SHOWING JUST A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL, WITH LOWERING CHANCES FOR FOG FROM
NW TO SE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK
IN FROM THE NORTH/WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION[0744]
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FINALLY
APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY RESULTING IN A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS SUGGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED
RESIDENCE TIMING IN THE BUOYANT WARM SECTOR BUT WITH 1000 - 1500
J/KG OF SB CAPE AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WE WILL
MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING EASTWARD
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE STILL LIGHTNING, STRONG
WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AFTER 11 PM TONIGHT: ONCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR TOMORROW
MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OUR COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
-SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN
30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY RANGE IN THE 80S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS RANGE IN THE 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. FOR
MONDAY, SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LATEST
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.3 DATA FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES IS BETWEEN 80 AND 90
PERCENT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, MID TO UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY, HELDERBERGS, AND PORTIONS OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS.
ONE FORECAST NOTE IS THAT THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FEEL-
LIKE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE OUTSIDE (HOT) FOR MONDAY AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY. OUR
CRITERIA FOR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 95 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NY, SO WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IF HEAT HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE (70%) FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-40%) ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS FAVORED
BY LATEST NBM DATA AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
PARTICULARLY FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WHILE
THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT, PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND STRONG
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ON IF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY. AS THE 4TH OF JULY IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY, DRY CONDITIONS COULD BE IN STORE IF STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
TUESDAY MORNING COULD FEEL MUGGY AS A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
AND LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY BRINGS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S
AND 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS RANGE IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 12:55 AM EDT,
EXCEPT AT GFL WHERE FOG/MIST IS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP A
TEMPO FOR FOG/MIST LEADING TO IFR VSBYS AT GFL FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF, BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS PICK UP. FRONT ALSO MOVES THROUGH
ALB/PSF WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SOME MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PSF WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. COLD FRONT WON'T GET
TO POU UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
MVFR VSBYS AND MIST HERE WITH THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG/MIST AT POU IS ON THE LOW SIDE. BY 11-12Z,
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE, WITH JUST FEW TO SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. WHILE INITIALLY LIGHT, WINDS
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AT 5KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AT ALL
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
NEAR TERM...JPV/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...MAIN
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