623
FXUS61 KALY 291638
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY, A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND IS MOVING
THROUGH SE NY INTO W. NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. WHILE IT IS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 65-70F TO 55-60F. DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO DRY ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LINGERING CLOUDS(MOSTLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN) AND/OR ANY PATCHY FOG AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN SAT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR IN FAVORED
SHELTERED AREAS. LOWS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM
LOWER/MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
OCCUR FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
DISCUSSION:
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST, A RETURN SW FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMING OF THE AIR MASS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. WITH GOOD
MIXING CONDITIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. NBM PROBS FOR > 90F
IN LOWEST ELEVATIONS ARE 50-90%. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE RETURN
LOOKS MORE DELAYED NOW, WITH PEAK DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN MAXIMUM FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES OF 90-95F IN VALLEYS, SO VALUES > 95F ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT (ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT), AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST.
THIS FRONT IS REALLY MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY, WITH VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING. IT WILL BE A WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/NORTHERN NY TUE MORNING, AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN
VALLEYS WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE SHOWING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. BASED
ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OUTLOOK. THERE IS A ALSO A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS
PWAT ANOMALIES RISE TO AROUND +2 TO +3 STDEV.
DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE
MILD, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HUMIDITY. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, THANKS IN
PART TO DEEP-MIXING, BUT IT SHOULD BE LESS HUMID THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT, BUT OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO 60S (VALLEYS).
THURSDAY, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN CANADA, AND POSSIBLY
UPSTATE NY, HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH OUR
REGION. DUE TO THE SMALL-SCALE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE, IT
LIKELY WILL NOT BE WELL RESOLVED UNTIL HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BECOMES
AVAILABLE, SO THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY,
WE WOULD BE REMISS TO NOT MENTION THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS GIVEN POTENTIAL OVERLAP OF STRONG
UPPER AND LOWER FORCING, DECENT SHEAR, AND AT LEAST SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS. CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AND END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD
OVERHEAD. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS, BUT A WARMER AIRMASS RETURNS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS. A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN AREAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MANY SOURCES OF GUIDANCE KEEP ANY
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST, WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOOKING TO DAYS 8-14, THE CPC IS LEANING TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE
3500-5000 FT RANGE, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. THESE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMININSH AND BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
FAVORABILTY OF PATCHY TO AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE FOG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT KPSF/KGFL WHERE A BREIF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. THIS FOR
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...SPECK
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