713
FXUS61 KALY 011047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING, IT WILL BE WARM
AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, WITH WARM BUT
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION, USHERING IN A
MOIST/HUMID AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
CENTRAL NY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW DOWNPOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF WESTERN NY. THE COLD FRONT WON'T BE MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS, SO THERE SHOULD BE
A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MID/LATE MORNING ONCE THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN SHOWERS/T-STORMS RE- DEVELOP. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
IS FOCUSED FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/EAST. AT LEAST
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BECOME OPPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 95F IN SOME
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. IN TERMS OF CONVECTION, SBCAPE BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG(GREATEST FROM ALB SOUTH/EAST) ALONG WITH 30-40 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST. MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. A LIMITING FACTOR IS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SO ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED. MUCH OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWAT ANOMALIES LOWER TO +1 TO +2 STDEV BY LATER
IN THE DAY, BUT ARE STILL ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. ANY REPEATED STORMS WOULD
BE OF CONCERN FOR ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
AS INSTABILITY WANES. DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE MILD WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, WITH SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN WED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM
(HIGHS LOWER/ MID 80S), BUT A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO TUE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THU, SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE T-STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE INDICATING A DECENT OVERLAP OF
MODERATE SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG AND 35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
ALSO OF NOTE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP(~7.0
DEGC/KM AT 750-500 MB) WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT, WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OUTLOOK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, AS NW FLOW EVENTS CAN HAVE A
TENDENCY TO PRODUCE MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN EXPECTED AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END THU EVENING, AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY, AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS PREDOMINATELY
IN THE 50S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO MID
70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLING IN NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S, AS HIGHS RISE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW OF THE SFC HIGH,
AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE NBM SUPPORT
MID/UPPER 80S BELOW 1000 FT IN ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S TO LOWER
80S ABOVE IT.
A WARM FRONT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEAT BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S IN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES MAY SUPPORT HEAT
ADVISORIES WITH MID/UPPER 90S POSSIBLE TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A FEW DIURNALLY-TIMED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY. THE WEEK OPENS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE COAST WEAKENING
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE HUMID AND WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BY CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES, EXPECT A COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS /MID 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS TO POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S BASED ON THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. SOME HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
MAJOR VALLEY AREAS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE MVFR CIGS AT KPSF 1.5-2.0 KFT AGL. THE
CIGS HAVE OCCASIONALLY LOWERED AT KPOU WITH KALB/KGFL STILL
HAVING SCT CUMULUS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND CIGS MAY LOWER AND MAYBE MORE WIDESPREAD 1.5-3.0 KFT
AGL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND NOON,
AS THE CIGS WILL RISE BACK TO VFR LEVELS BETWEEN 16Z-20Z/TUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TAF
SITES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH PROB30
GROUPS USED. THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE PLACED IN
THE 20Z TO 00Z/WED TIME FRAME FOR KALB, 22Z-02Z/WED FOR
KPSF/KPOU. MVFR CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY IFR LEVELS WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVALENT AND SOME LOWER STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
MIST MAY FORM AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 06Z/WED.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO SW/W AT 8-12 KT IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
AT KALB/KPSF. STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM W/SW AT LESS THAN 7 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
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