537
FXUS61 KALY 192359
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
AS OF 758 PM EDT...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION, CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM WESTERN NY AND WEST-CENTRAL PA. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
FORMING AND MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, AND NW CT, AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATED OVERCAST SKIES.
LOWER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRAZE THE
I84 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SKYCOVER WAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UPDATE, AS WELL AS WINDS IN THE
CONFLUENT AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE IT HAS BECOME BREEZY,
AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT TO BE ALIGNED BETTER WITH WFO OKX
TOWARDS DAYBREAK (5 AM - 8 AM).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. IT WILL BECOME
CLOUDIER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED TO START THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY LOWER LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS TO LIFT.
THEREAFTER, IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S WITH 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES COULD
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND OR GREATER
THAN 700 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED IN
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA STARTING ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS TRENDING BACK UPWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO COOL NIGHTS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
A RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S. COMBINING WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES) COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A COUPLE OF PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD BEGIN TO EASE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THRU 00Z MON...VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AND SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, LOWER STRATUS AT MVFR LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FORM
BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/SUN AT KPOU AND KPSF AND THEN WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD 06Z-12Z/SUN FOR KALB/KGFL WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/SUN. WE DID PLACE
SOME IFR CLOUD COVER 09Z-14Z/SUN AT KPSF, AND WERE LESS
CONFIDENT AT KPOU, BUT BASES COULD BE AS A LOW 1.2 KFT AGL
THERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z/SUN, BUT A
PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 GROUPS WERE
USED 17Z-23Z/SUN AT THE TAF SITES WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS
WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. LATER ISSUANCES CAN TIGHTEN THE
THE WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 7 KT TONIGHT,
EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE THE WINDS MAY PERSIST AROUND 10 KT MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE (22Z/SUN TO 00Z/MON) AT 8-12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
UPDATE...WASULA
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN/WASULA
DISCUSSION...RATHBUN
AVIATION...WASULA
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