327
FXUS61 KALY 200610
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE WEEK ON MONDAY, BUT HOT AND
STICKY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 210 AM EDT...A SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS HAVE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, WITH BOTH LOW STRATUS AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER PENNSYLVANIA. CAMS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY, SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, AS THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES AND OUR AREA GETS FULLY INTO A WARM SECTOR.
ENOUGH SUN IS EXPECTED TO BOOST VALLEY AREAS QUICKLY INTO THE
80S AND WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S, THERE
SHOULD BE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ABOUT 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CAMS SHOW A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THIS
WILL BE WITHIN THE TOP PORTION OF THE LAYER. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN'T TOO STEEP DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT, THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING
AND DCAPE VALUES MAY BE IN THE 500-100 J/KG RANGE. THERE WILL BE
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL CLUSTER OR
LINES. THERE SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT DUE TO HIGHER
LCL HEIGHTS AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE HAIL. WITH THE HIGH PWATS, STORMS
COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AND AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL POUR
INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR TONIGHT.
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH VALUES IN THE 40S AND
50S EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON MONDAY,
WINDS LOOK LOWER ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS SO TEMPS WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL, BUT STILL VERY
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO DEPART, A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS TO START RETURNING TO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HOTTEST TEMPS LOOK TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE WEEK AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO 20 C BY THURSDAY. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE LATE WEEK, AS THE HOT TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOT TEMPS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL, AS A COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA, SO THE
THREAT FOR HEAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH DURING
THE LATE WEEK, SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH THE STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, BUT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WOULD BE NORTHERN AREAS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY, COULD BE A THREAT
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH CAN GET TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING 15Z-18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT GFL/ALB FROM 17Z-22Z AND POU/PSF FROM
18Z-23Z. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HUMPHREY
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