495
FXUS61 KALY 201811
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
211 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE,
WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AMID A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000
J/KG WITH 35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PRESENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DCAPE VALUES COULD REACH AROUND 700 J/KG WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. AREAS WITHIN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE THE GREATEST BREAKS FOR SUN HAVE BEEN TODAY. DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. A SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S (WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).
VERY NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO
+5 TO +7 C (AROUND -2 STDEV). IN ADDITION, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE -1 TO -2 STDEV. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS ON MONDAY). HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT RATHER PLEASANT WITH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND
50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED COLDER SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20
TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET FOR ONE OR MULTIPLE DAYS
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION AS
850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND +20C (AROUND +2 STDEV).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER
IN TIME AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL 00Z/MON WHERE SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KPSF BEFORE CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR, CONFIDENCE ON INCLUSION IN THE TAFS IS
LOW AS A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THEN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. A
FEW GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KT ON MONDAY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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