333
FXUS61 KALY 210515
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE...AS OF 855 PM EDT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WAS CANCELED
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 THROUGH COLLAB WITH SPC. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AS
DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S WITH UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY. A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT
SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS PRIOR TO 06Z/MON.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/POPS/WX, BUT THE TREND IS THERE
FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH EVEN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BECOME VERY COMFORTABLE.
PLEASE SEE OUR SUMMARY LSR WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S (WITH SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS).
VERY NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO
+5 TO +7 C (AROUND -2 STDEV). IN ADDITION, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE -1 TO -2 STDEV. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS ON MONDAY). HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT RATHER PLEASANT WITH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND
50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED COLDER SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20
TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET FOR ONE OR MULTIPLE DAYS
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION AS
850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND +20C (AROUND +2 STDEV).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER
IN TIME AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR KALB, KPSF, AND
KPOU. FOR KGFL, ONCE THESE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND
CLEAR SKIES RETURNS, PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING COULD BRING IFR
CONDITIONS THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN TEMPO GROUPS AS VISIBILITY
WILL FLUCTUATE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 12Z. WINDS
THROUGH 12Z REMAIN CALM TO NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KNOTS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS COULD GUST PERIODICALLY BETWEEN 15
AND 18 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN/WASULA
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...WEBB
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