025
FXUS61 KALY 210600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. COMFORTABLE AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
LAST EVENING HAS ALREADY PASSED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SLOWLY TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND
WHILE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, THEY ARE STILL IN THE 60S
IN MANY AREAS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED
OUT. WITH WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT, SOME RADIATIONAL FOG HAS BEEN
FORMING IN VALLEY AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS,
CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THROUGH DAYBREAK, SOME PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS. OTHERWISE, NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND IT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK
MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF FURTHER DURING THE
DAY, WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT, HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S.
WITH A FAIRLY CLEAR SKY, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SHELTERED AREAS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
CONSIDERING THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S (SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN).
IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
KEEPING A FAIRLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN VERY LOW IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY (PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER), WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER
70S IN VALLEY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND FAIRLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL HELP RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 60S
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY START, SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. WITH RISING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT, TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. EXPECT A MILDER AND MUGGIER NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S, BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES DURING THIS STRETCH FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND +20 C FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 592-594 DM RANGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VALLEY AREAS TO SEE HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S.
THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (OVER 90%) FOR HIGHS TO
EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
EXPECTED DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) WOULD BE
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA (95-104 DEGREES). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARNING-LEVEL VALUES (105+), ESPECIALLY IF
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OCCUR. WPC EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE IMPACTS (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON THURSDAY WITH MANY
AREAS IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR FRIDAY. HEAT-
RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS WOULD BE A THREAT FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SOME RELIEF IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR MODERATE IMPACTS EVEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS TEMPS STILL WELL INTO THE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH WILL
PREVENT MUCH RELIEF FROM OCCURRING AS WELL.
WITH THE STRONG RIDGING, IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY PRECIP-FREE
FOR THURSDAY. SOME CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. IT'S STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW CLOSE THIS FEATURE WILL BE, WHICH WILL DETERMINE
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS, ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW CLOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE TO THE AREA WILL DETERMINE
THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR KALB, KPSF, AND
KPOU. FOR KGFL, ONCE THESE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND
CLEAR SKIES RETURNS, PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING COULD BRING IFR
CONDITIONS THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN TEMPO GROUPS AS VISIBILITY
WILL FLUCTUATE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 12Z. WINDS
THROUGH 12Z REMAIN CALM TO NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KNOTS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS COULD GUST PERIODICALLY BETWEEN 15
AND 18 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WEBB
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