719
FXUS61 KALY 220650
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
GRADUAL TEMPERATURE WARM UP BEGINS TODAY WITH SEASONAL AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY, CHANCES (30-50%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES RETURN TO
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS WE GRADUALLY WARM UP TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
IS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 70S AND 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL RANGING IN THE 40S AND 50S
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT RANGE IN THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, THURSDAY IS
LOOKING TO BE THE START OF HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, LATEST PROBABILITIES
FROM NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.3 DATA RANGES BETWEEN 80 AND
95 PERCENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES.
PROBABILITIES ARE EVEN HIGHER RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 99 PERCENT FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE,
FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S. AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
90 DEGREES AND FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE 95 DEGREES FOR
MORE THAN 2 HOURS, HEAT HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE
ISSUED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
FOR FRIDAY, HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO UPPER 90S (VALLEYS). THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT TEMPERATURES DO REACH DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT
NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
PROBABILITIES RANGE BETWEEN 90 AND 99 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES BASED
ON LATEST NBM DATA. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 50 AND 75 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THE GREATEST RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
PERIODS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE COLD FRONT IS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES THROUGH. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIAL TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATIONS.
SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S AND
LOW 90S. LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS DAILY CHANCES
(30-50%) FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE. LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THESE
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA OVER ONTARIO. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR KALB/KPSF/KALB,
ALTHOUGH A LARGE PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS IMPACTING KPOU.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS, BKN CIGS AROUND 7 KFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR KPOU THROUGH DAYBREAK, WHILE THE OTHER SITES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS ARE VERY
LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL SITES. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE,
WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS AND A LOW T/TD SPREAD AT KGFL COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME BRIEF MIST/FOG THERE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ANY FOG OR MIST
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THERE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL SITES. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES,
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE FAIRLY SUNNY WITH NO PRECIP AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BY AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS. IT WILL STAY VFR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO PRECIP AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIR
MASS AND SHORT DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP PREVENT
MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...FRUGIS
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