787
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A COMFORTABLE DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS A BOUNDARY TRACKS INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES RETURN TO
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS WE GRADUALLY WARM UP TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
IS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 70S AND 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL RANGING IN THE 40S AND 50S
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT RANGE IN THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, THURSDAY IS
LOOKING TO BE THE START OF HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, LATEST PROBABILITIES
FROM NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.3 DATA RANGES BETWEEN 80 AND
95 PERCENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES.
PROBABILITIES ARE EVEN HIGHER RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 99 PERCENT FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE,
FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S. AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
90 DEGREES AND FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE 95 DEGREES FOR
MORE THAN 2 HOURS, HEAT HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE
ISSUED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
FOR FRIDAY, HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO UPPER 90S (VALLEYS). THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT TEMPERATURES DO REACH DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT
NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
PROBABILITIES RANGE BETWEEN 90 AND 99 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES BASED
ON LATEST NBM DATA. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 50 AND 75 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THE GREATEST RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
PERIODS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE COLD FRONT IS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES THROUGH. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIAL TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATIONS.
SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S AND
LOW 90S. LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS DAILY CHANCES
(30-50%) FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE. LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THESE
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AT POU AND GFL, GIVEN HIGHER DEW
POINTS. WE TRENDED VIS DOWNWARDS TO IFR FOR PSF, POU, AND GFL
FROM 07 - 11 UTC WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR VIS AT ALB WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR PERSISTENT FOG. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST BY 13 - 15 UTC AND REMAINING UNDER 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE/WEBB
DISCUSSION...SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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