285
FXUS61 KALY 221858
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A COMFORTABLE DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS A BOUNDARY TRACKS INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FEEL-
LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY CONTINUES TODAY AS A ~595DM RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE MS/TN VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A 1025HPA
CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH HAS MAINTAINED VERY
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A FEW
SITES IN THE IMMEDIATE VALLEY AREA TOUCHING 80. DEW POINTS ALSO
REMAIN LOW/COMFORTABLE AS SEEN IN THE BUF/OKX 12 UTC SOUNDINGS
FROM THIS MORNING. WE TURN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
SUPPORTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN. WITH DEW POINTS
SLIGHT HIGHER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, VALLEY AREA LOOKS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND SITES NEAR WET LANDS.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 - 12 UTC WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN HOW COOL MANY
BECAME LAST NIGHT, WE AGAIN LEANED ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. RIDGING CRESTS OVERHEAD TOMORROW
SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES CREEPING UPWARDS. AS 850HPA
ISOTHERMS RISE TO +16C TO +18C AND AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING EXTENDS UP TO 850HPA UNDER PLENTY OF SUN, WE CAN EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE 50 TO LOW 60S
SUPPORTING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BUT FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THEN DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT TRACKS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHERS IN A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. AS OUR HIGH SHIFTS OFF
SHORE, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT 850 HPA
ISOTHERMS 18C TO 19C WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOW 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE HUDSON, MOHAWK AND CT VALLEY AREAS WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES
WHILE ELEVATIONS 1000 FT AND HIGHER HAVE UNDER A 10% CHANCE OF
RISING OVER 90. WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL NECESSITATE A HEAT
ADVISORY IN VALLEY AREAS. THE HEATRISK GUIDANCE SHOWS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RISK WITH MAJOR RISK IMPACTS LIMITED TO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW HOT IT WILL BECOME AS
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EARLIER WITH THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWING IT REACHING AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN MA/NW CT BY 00 UTC
SATURDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK INTO A VERY WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS AND ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING, OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK
CHARACTERIZED BY JUST SOME SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES IN THE 700 -
500HPA LAYER CONTINUE TO APPEAR TOO WARM TO SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY STEEPENING TO
5-5.5C/KM. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS RATHER
TIGHT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO
THE BOUNDARY SO STILL EXPECTING CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS LIKELY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS RISE TOWARDS 2" AND FZL HEIGHTS ~15KFT
SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES), LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LIKELY
END THE RAIN/STORM THREAT AS THE FRONT TRACKS IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITION. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA AGAIN BUILDS SOUTHWARDS. THIS HAS REDUCED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS LINGERING TO SOUTH GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW SOUTH THE FRONT EXTENDS. OTHERWISE,
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90
DEGREES PER THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKING EASTWARD. THIS LOOKS TO LIFT THE
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT RESULTING
IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS COULD BE
LIMITED TO EASTERN NY BUT AGAIN THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY.
WITH PWATS RISING BACK NEAR 2", HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN NEED
TO BE MONITORED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH HUMIDITY RETURNS
WITHIN THE INCOMING WARM SECTOR. THE SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY THE NEW WORK WEEK. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS UNDER 30% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 90
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AT POU AND GFL, GIVEN HIGHER DEW
POINTS. WE TRENDED VIS DOWNWARDS TO IFR FOR PSF, POU, AND GFL
FROM 07 - 11 UTC WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR VIS AT ALB WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR PERSISTENT FOG. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST BY 13 - 15 UTC AND REMAINING UNDER 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE/WEBB
DISCUSSION...SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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