071
FXUS61 KALY 231026
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RETURN TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BACK TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES RETURN TO
PARTS OF VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
- 5-14% CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN THE 70S AND 80S. A HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES TONIGHT FOR EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SO A MUGGY FEELING OUTSIDE
RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
RANGE IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RANGE IN THE 80S
AND LOW 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME ON THURSDAY
AND PROBABILITIES HAVE COME DOWN FOR THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, HEAT HEADLINES COULD
BE ISSUED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
TOMORROW.
FOR FRIDAY, HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN
THE UPPER 80S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO LOW AND MID 90S (VALLEYS).
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT COULD OCCUR FRIDAY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
SCENARIO 1: FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, CLOUD COVERAGE
COULD DRASTICALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THAT LIMITS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FROM EXCEEDING IN THE MID 80S WHILE CURRENT FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE
ARRIVES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY BY THE MORNING HOURS,
TEMPERATURES TOO COULD BE LIMITED WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S, ESPECIALLY FOR RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALSO TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY HELPING LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90-95 DEGREES. BASICALLY, TEMPERATURES
COULD BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTED DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE IN AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SCENARIO 2: SUNNY SKIES DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH AND LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS. BASICALLY, CLEAR SKIES HELP WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 90S WITH FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN SPENDING
PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS. STAY HYDRATED AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO STAY COOL. WHILE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HOW HOT IT DOES FEEL OUTSIDE, IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 70 AND 85 PERCENT. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE LIGHTNING, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (5-14% CHANCE)
DEPENDING ON ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS TO HELP CONTRIBUTE STORMS
HAVING STRONG WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL
SIZE UP TO ONE INCH. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY BEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
REMEMBER WHEN THUNDER ROARS, HEAD INDOORS! A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HELPING BRING
RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S. LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. FOR SATURDAY, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE
NOW SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING HOURS, WITH LOW CHANCES
(LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR SUNDAY, LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL
FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES (50-70 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE WITH DAILY LOW
CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
LOW, A POP-UP RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ARE LOOKING TO RANGE IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF INTERMITTENT IFR VSBYS AT KGFL THROUGH 12Z/THU DUE
TO PATCHY GROUND FOG. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME PATCHY CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND HIGH CIRRUS PATCHES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT, SOME LOWER CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND KPOU AFTER 08Z/THU. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THESE WINDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KGFL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KL
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