415
FXUS61 KALY 231840
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
A COLD FRONT, WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 95-100 POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
NEAR NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND RANGING FROM THE THE MID 60S (TERRAIN) TO NEAR 80 (VALLEYS).
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC, WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. 925-850
HPA TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 16-20 DEGREES
CELSIUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MIXING, PM
HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH THE
LATER FAVORED MAINLY IN THE MOHAWK/HUDSON VALLEYS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS ON THE PM HEAT INDICES, WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY
BY DEWPOINTS AND HOW HIGH THEY CAN CLIMB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RESTRICTS DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE NBM/NAM THE MOST EXTREME IN
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S, AND THE HRRR ON THE OTHER SIDE
PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING AND DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 60. FAVORED MORE OF
A MIDDLE GROUND WITH THIS PACKAGE, WHICH IN TURN KEEPS PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE 90-95 RANGE. THE HIGHER VALUES ARE FAVORED MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION,
THOUGH OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IN THIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF MIXING POTENTIALLY LIMITING PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAT
INDICES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95-100 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
WHETHER WE CAN GET WARMER, WITH MUCH OF IT DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THOUGH LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PROMOTE MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE (50-70%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AREAWIDE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
FLOW SWITCHES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOWS IN 50S/60S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THRU 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME LOWER STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BASED 3.5-5 KFT AGL DUE TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE DID NOT PUT ANY MVFR
CIGS YET, BUT A SMALL WINDOW (15-30% CHANCE) MAY OCCUR 08Z-14Z/THU
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF. ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE LOW VFR OR MVFR
RANGE SHOULD DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AT 4 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT
5-10 KT. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
DISCUSSION...SPECK
AVIATION...WASULA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page